El rompimiento del triángulo simétrico de Bitcoin: un punto de entrada táctico para 2026?

Bitcoin's price action in late December 2025 has crystallized into a symmetrical triangle pattern-a classic technical formation that could signal a pivotal turning point for the asset. With the price consolidating near $87,000 and a critical resistance ceiling at $90,200, the market is poised for a breakout that could either reignite the bullish trend or force a deeper consolidation phase. For investors, understanding this pattern's implications, combined with institutional sentiment and volatility dynamics, is key to identifying a tactical entry point ahead of a potential $95,000–$100,000 rally.

The Technical Case: Symmetrical Triangle and Momentum Signals

A symmetrical triangle is a neutral pattern formed by converging trendlines connecting lower highs and higher lows since mid-December 2025. In Bitcoin's case, the pattern has been tightening since mid-December 2025, with support anchoring near $86,700–$87,000 and resistance capping at $90,200 a critical resistance ceiling at $90,200. A breakout above the upper trendline would validate a bullish continuation, with the measured move projecting a target of $95,000 a target of $95,000. Conversely, a breakdown below the lower trendline could drag the price toward $88,000 extending range-bound action into early 2026.

Momentum indicators add nuance to this setup. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Stochastic RSI have entered overbought territory, suggesting short-term exhaustion and a potential pullback according to technical analysis. However, the Aroon Up indicator recently hit 100% on the 4-hour chart, signaling strong buyer demand a strong buyer demand signal. Meanwhile, the MACD line crossing above zero reinforces the possibility of a price surge a price surge possibility. These signals collectively hint at a market primed for a directional move, with volume likely to play a decisive role in confirming the breakout.

Institutional Sentiment: Divergence and Structural Shifts

While technicals point to a potential breakout, institutional sentiment remains a wildcard. On one hand, traditional analysts like Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer caution that 2026 could be a "consolidation year," with Bitcoin trading in a $65,000–$75,000 range according to analyst forecasts. On the other, Grayscale and Bitwise argue that the "Dawn of the Institutional Era" is underway, driven by ETF inflows and regulatory clarity according to institutional research. This structural shift suggests Bitcoin could break its historical four-year cycle and reach a new all-time high in 2026.

Recent ETF flows, however, complicate the narrative. Net outflows of $782 million in late December 2025 according to whale alerts reflect weak institutional demand, yet the 4-hour chart's bullish symmetrical triangle indicates strong retail and speculative buying a strong retail and speculative buying signal. This divergence underscores a tug-of-war between short-term profit-taking and long-term accumulation. For investors, the key is to monitor whether institutional outflows reverse as the price tests critical levels, which could signal renewed confidence in Bitcoin's utility as a macro hedge.

Volatility and the Path to $100K

Bitcoin's volatility in late 2025 has been shaped by macroeconomic factors, including shifting Fed rate expectations and the unwinding of excessive leverage in crypto trading according to financial professionals. Despite this, the symmetrical triangle's formation suggests a compression of volatility-a precursor to a sharp breakout. If Bitcoin surges above $90,975 with strong volume a surge above $90,975, it could target $94,200 and eventually $100,000, signaling a paradigm shift in how the asset is valued a paradigm shift in asset valuation.

A critical factor will be Bitcoin's dominance index and liquidity depth. A breakout to $100,000 with low volatility would indicate a "Super-Cycle" scenario, where institutional adoption and ETF-driven inflows drive sustained appreciation a Super-Cycle scenario. Conversely, a failure to hold above $89,500–$90,000 a failure to hold above $89,500–$90,000 could force a retest of the $87,000 support zone, prolonging consolidation.

Strategic Entry: Timing the Breakout

For tactical investors, the symmetrical triangle offers a high-probability setup. A long entry could be considered if Bitcoin closes above $90,200 with strong volume, targeting $95,000 as the first objective. A stop-loss below $87,000 would mitigate downside risk, while a successful breakout could unlock a $100,000 rally. This approach aligns with the broader thesis that Bitcoin's structural tailwinds-ETF adoption, regulatory progress, and macroeconomic tailwinds-will dominate in 2026 according to institutional outlook.

Conclusion

Bitcoin's symmetrical triangle is more than a technical pattern; it's a barometer of market sentiment and institutional positioning. While short-term volatility and ETF outflows pose risks, the convergence of bullish momentum indicators and structural shifts in the institutional landscape strengthens the case for a $95K–$100K rally. For investors with a medium-term horizon, timing the breakout from this pattern could offer a compelling entry point into what may be the next leg of Bitcoin's bull run.