Bitcoin Surges 8% as Trump Ceasefire Announcement Boosts Crypto Market

In a dramatic turn of events, the crypto market experienced a significant reversal within a 24-hour period, driven by geopolitical developments. The sudden announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran by President Trump triggered a sharp recovery in Bitcoin's price, surging from $98,200 to $106,075, marking an 8% daily gain. This rapid shift in market sentiment highlighted the extreme sensitivity of crypto assets to geopolitical tensions, reinforcing their role as high-risk speculative instruments.

The ceasefire announcement, which was made through social media, rapidly ignited market optimism. Bitcoin's price surged from early session lows, reaching a peak with daily gains exceeding 8%. Ethereum, Solana, and other mainstream cryptocurrencies also rebounded simultaneously, with the total crypto market cap recovering to $3.3 trillion, representing a 6% increase from the previous day’s low. This dramatic turnaround was a result of the Trump administration’s intensive Middle East actions in recent days, which included airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and hints of “regime change,” ultimately leading to a ceasefire within just 48 hours.

Following the ceasefire news, the crypto markets experienced massive short position closures. Total network liquidations reached $495 million in the past 24 hours, with short positions accounting for over 76%, marking the year’s largest short squeeze event. One exchange recorded a single ETH-USDT contract liquidation of $12.14 million, highlighting liquidity risks under extreme market conditions. Despite the market’s rapid rebound, capital flows showed clear disagreement between institutional and retail investors. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net inflows exceeding $1 billion for two consecutive weeks, becoming a key force supporting price floors. However, the Fear and Greed Index dropped to 37, representing fear, and the altcoin season index remained at a low of 14, indicating that small investors still maintained a wait-and-see attitude. This divergence suggests that the current rally is driven more by algorithmic buying and short covering rather than market consensus bullishness.

Technical analysts pointed out that Bitcoin’s daily chart is forming a “head and shoulders bottom” reversal pattern. If it can hold above $105,000, it may initiate a new main uptrend. However, without new capital inflows, the short term may maintain a consolidation pattern. Ethereum, although rebounded to $2,440, has not yet reclaimed the key psychological level of $2,500. On-chain data shows staking yields recovered to 3.8%, but staking growth lacks momentum. Ecosystem activity shows no significant improvement. Analysts worry that if the Pectra upgrade fails to activate developer enthusiasm as expected, ETH may face “secondary bottom” risks.

This event again confirms cryptocurrency’s sensitivity to geopolitical risks. During the conflict escalation period, Bitcoin fell below $100,000 due to liquidity squeezes, declining alongside gold and oil. However, as tensions eased, funds quickly returned to risk assets, with Bitcoin’s single-day rebound strength far exceeding U.S. stocks. This “sharp fall, sharp rise” characteristic reflects that crypto assets have not fully shed their “high-risk speculative” label. However, their decentralized properties are building alternative safe haven narratives. The Trump administration’s erratic diplomatic strategies have become the biggest variable for crypto markets, often triggering chain reactions. Traders admit that they have to reassess risk models after every White House statement, greatly increasing their position costs.

Despite the ceasefire agreement temporarily easing tensions, potential risks remain. Iranian officials have denied reaching a substantial agreement with Israel, laying groundwork for future variables. Additionally, Bitcoin derivatives market put option skew remains elevated, suggesting traders doubt medium to long-term trends. Short-term, investors should monitor the effectiveness of the $105,000 breakout and consider partial profit-taking if resistance is met. Long-term, under normalized geopolitical conflicts, dollar-cost averaging plus hedging may be the better solution. Within 24 hours, the crypto market used a deep V recovery to demonstrate the power of “geopolitical pricing authority.” When war and peace become footnotes on candlestick charts, investors must maintain reverence to capture opportunities within the storm’s eye. As one veteran trader said, “In the crypto world, the biggest risk isn’t volatility – it’s thinking you can predict volatility.”