Bitcoin surges 7% as Middle East ceasefire boosts risk assets

Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a significant rebound, surging 7% this week after dipping to $98,200. At the time of writing, BTC is trading around $106,900, just below the $108,250 resistance level, which has capped price action since the June highs. Technical momentum is cooling, and the next 48 hours will be crucial in determining whether Bitcoin breaks higher or reverts back toward key support levels.

Short-term technical indicators suggest a potential reversal. The 2-hour chart displays a rising wedge pattern, with BTC printing a lower high near the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement at $106,237. A break below the 50-period EMA ($106,249) could open a move toward $104,991 and $103,984—marking the 0.382 and 0.5 retracement zones. Key resistance levels are at $108,250 and $110,000, while support levels to watch are $106,250 and $104,900. The RSI is neutral at 56, and the MACD histogram is weakening.

Traders looking for long exposure may wait for a confirmed breakout above $108,250. Bears, on the other hand, could consider short setups below $106,200, with a downside target near $104,000. Bitcoin’s latest move is macro-driven. A Middle East ceasefire has calmed market nerves, and capital is flowing back into risk assets. Bitcoin reclaimed its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) around $106,000 mid-week, and buyers are defending that zone. The softer geopolitical climate has given BTC the stability to retest $107,000.

Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve has toned down its language on crypto banking, reducing regulatory pressure. Traders took this as a green light and are reinforcing Bitcoin’s recent strength. Institutional demand remains strong, with ETFs seeing net inflows for 13 consecutive days, totaling $1.71 billion this week, the most since May. Major corporate holders like Metaplanet and ProCap have accumulated over 7,500 BTC in the same period, demonstrating institutional conviction despite retail inactivity.

Technical resistance between $108,000 and $110,000 remains the key barrier. Analysts say a close above $109,000 with increased volume could push BTC to $112,000 and beyond. Potential targets include $120,000 and even $165,000, driven by spot ETF demand and macro tailwinds. However, upside isn’t guaranteed. A failure to clear $108,250 may trigger a short-term pullback. Volume is still low, and on-chain activity has declined—transfer volume is down 32% to $52 billion, while spot trading remains muted around $7.7 billion.

If the price breaks below $106,249, the path to $104,000–$105,000 opens. These zones may act as accumulation points for bulls. The next 48 hours are pivotal. A confirmed breakout above $108,000 could ignite a fresh rally. A rejection may spell consolidation—or correction—before the next leg higher.