Bitcoin Surges 7.2% to $106,400 as Geopolitical Tensions Ease

Bitcoin experienced a brief drop below $100,000 during a 12-day conflict involving Israeli and US strikes on Iran, along with retaliatory attacks on Israel and US bases in Qatar. This geopolitical tension shook markets until US President Donald Trump confirmed a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, which triggered a rebound in global risk sentiment. As investor confidence returned, Bitcoin began a fresh rally, breaking through the $106,000 level on Wednesday.

New data suggest that the crypto asset could see a potential surge to $120,000 amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Bitcoin could be poised for a sharp upward move, potentially reaching $120,000, after successfully reclaiming its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The 50-day EMA is widely regarded as a critical technical indicator, and often serves as support during corrections in a broader bullish trend. Historically, when Bitcoin dips below this level and quickly regains it, the market tends to respond with a rapid 10-20% surge. This pattern is playing out again: following a brief pullback below the EMA, Bitcoin has closed above it for three consecutive days, which is indicative of a renewed bullish momentum.

CryptoQuant explained that this recovery could kickstart a new leg up in the ongoing cycle. However, they caution that external geopolitical factors, particularly developments related to the US, Israel, and Iran, may inject short-term volatility into the market. In such an environment, traders should avoid excessive leverage and maintain a risk-managed approach. While technical indicators currently support a bullish outlook, broader macro and geopolitical uncertainty continue to pose potential headwinds. Despite this, the reclaim of the 50-day EMA remains a significant milestone for Bitcoin, which strengthens the case for a possible rally toward the six-figure mark.

Beyond technical indicators, on-chain metrics also support Bitcoin’s current momentum, especially the behavior of short-term holders. The Short-Term Holder Realized Price (STH-RP), which now stands at $98K, continues to act as a key psychological and technical support for Bitcoin. As it edges toward $100K, each uptick reinforces six figures as the new perceived “fair value.” Bitcoin’s spot price is $106.4K, a 7.2% premium over STH-RP, which suggests reduced “froth.” Recent sharp bounces off STH-RP confirm a bullish structure, while long-term holders remain unmoved, with their cost basis at $32K. This veteran supply lock-up limits downside risk. As long as the crypto asset holds above STH-RP, the uptrend of higher lows and higher highs remains intact; a break below would signal a potential correction.

Bitcoin has recently shown signs of a potential sharp upward move, with analysts suggesting it could reach as high as $120,000. This optimism is fueled by Bitcoin successfully reclaiming its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a technical indicator that often signals a bullish trend. The cryptocurrency has already surged beyond $105,000, driven by reduced global tensions and increased investments in exchange-traded funds (ETFs). This rally has also benefited other cryptocurrencies, such as Ethereum, which saw a rise in its value.

The market sentiment has been further bolstered by geopolitical developments, such as a ceasefire announcement between Iran and Israel, which triggered a relief rally. This event pushed Bitcoin back to $105,000, with other major cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and Solana also gaining significant ground. The broader market pump has also lifted meme coins, with some experiencing substantial gains. For instance, SKI, a meme coin, saw a 35% increase in the last 24 hours, indicating a renewed interest in the cryptocurrency market.

Analysts have also pointed out that there is a 66% probability that Bitcoin will break $110,000 this year, according to Polymarket predictions. This forecast is based on the current market trends and the technical indicators that suggest a bullish outlook for Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency's resilience during periods of geopolitical uncertainty and market volatility has further cemented its status as a safe haven asset, similar to digital gold.

Despite the positive outlook, some analysts caution that Bitcoin's momentum remains weak and that more buying pressure is needed to sustain a reversal. The cryptocurrency market is known for its volatility, and while Bitcoin has shown signs of strength, it is essential to remain vigilant and monitor the market closely. Investors are advised to consider the potential risks and rewards before making any investment decisions.