Bitcoin Surges 6.5% to $103,963 on US-UK Trade Deal

Bitcoin has once again surpassed the $100,000 mark, sparking a mix of excitement and caution among investors. The recent surge in Bitcoin's price can be attributed to several factors, including a significant trade deal between the U.S. and the UK, which has unlocked new opportunities for U.S. exports and boosted market sentiment. This deal, announced on the 8th of May, has provided a powerful catalyst for risk assets, including Bitcoin, which rallied nearly 6.5% in less than 48 hours to reclaim the $103,963 mark.

However, while external momentum has been decisive, the internal dynamics of the Bitcoin market are more nuanced. Notably, 99.004% of Bitcoin addresses have a cost basis below the current spot price of $103,264, indicating that the vast majority of the market is in an unrealized profit position. This suggests that many investors are holding onto their Bitcoin, hoping for further gains. In contrast, only 0.996% of addresses are underwater, having acquired Bitcoin above this level. This unrealized ratio is a key indicator of the internal strength of Bitcoin's current market structure.

For instance, a 40x leveraged whale who entered at $94,088 is now sitting on $2.8 million in unrealized gains. Given the bullish macro conditions, this whale is likely holding out for further upside, betting on even higher returns. However, what's interesting is the absence of any major accumulation from whales holding more than 1,000 BTC during the period when Bitcoin eclipsed the $100k mark. This cautious approach in a bull market usually signals liquidity concerns or the view that the upside might be more slow and steady, with potential short-term pullbacks along the way.

Essentially, whales are playing the waiting game, waiting for confirmation that the bull trend has some staying power before putting more chips on the table. While the lack of whale accumulation doesn’t necessarily spell a market top, other liquidity channels are flexing their muscles. Spot buying is strong, ETFs are seeing heavy capital inflows, and BTC reserves aren’t spiking – clear signals of institutional and spot-driven demand. So, calling a top at $103k is jumping the gun. If this demand continues to roll in, a new all-time high might be just a matter of time. The bulls clearly aren’t finished yet.

That said, whales play a crucial role in the puzzle. Their lack of conviction could trigger a profit-taking cycle, rather than sustaining the bull run, causing liquidity squeezes. Therefore, while momentum remains strong, expecting a linear rally is premature. A short-term correction is likely, creating overhead resistance before BTC can unlock higher targets. Investors are taking a more “cautious” approach at these elevated price levels, with crypto investor “greed” out in full force as Bitcoin surges back into six-figure territory. This move isn’t just coincidence, and the market is asking – is the rally real this time?