Bitcoin Surges 100% in July, Analysts Predict $300,000 by Christmas

Bitcoin has experienced a significant rally in July, reaching new highs at $118,600, and this surge could be the beginning of a more substantial upward trend. According to an anonymous Bitcoin analyst, apsk32, Bitcoin's price action has historically followed a long-term power curve trendline, which reflects its exponential growth over time. This trendline measures price deviation not just in dollar terms but also in units of time, an approach known as Power Law Time Contours.

According to apsk32, Bitcoin is currently more than two years ahead of its power curve. This means that if the price were to remain flat, it would take over two years for the long-term trendline to intersect it again. The analyst described the current market sentiment as being in the "extreme greed" zone, which spans from $112,000 to $258,000. This zone has been observed during Bitcoin’s euphoric peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021. If the four-year pattern continues, Bitcoin could reach between $200,000 and $300,000 by Christmas, before the bullish momentum begins to fade at the start of 2026.

Satraj Bambra, CEO of a perpetual trading platform, also noted that several macroeconomic forces could drive Bitcoin significantly higher in 2025. These forces include an expanding Federal Reserve balance sheet and a pivot toward lower interest rates, potentially under new Fed leadership responding to the economic drag from rising tariffs. These shifts could ignite a broad-based rally in risk-on assets, with Bitcoin poised to benefit. Bambra cited the US Dollar Index (DXY) dropping below 100 as a critical early signal of this macro pivot, suggesting that a wave of rate cuts and fresh stimulus may soon follow.

Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are gaining ground on gold, capturing 70% of its year-to-date net inflows. This strong rebound from a slow 2025 start signals growing institutional interest and confidence in Bitcoin as a legitimate store of value. Bitcoin remains a risk-on asset, with a moderate correlation to the Nasdaq 100 over the past 12 months, consistent with its five-year average. Its low correlation with gold and bonds highlights its unique portfolio role.

Fidelity’s Director of Global Macro recently remarked that the baton has swung back to Bitcoin. According to the analyst, the narrowing gap in Sharpe ratios between Bitcoin and gold points to BTC offering superior risk-adjusted returns. The Sharpe ratio gauges how much excess return an asset delivers for the level of risk taken, comparing its performance to a risk-free benchmark adjusted for volatility. The chart highlights how Bitcoin’s returns have been closing in on gold’s, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards Bitcoin.