Bitcoin Surges 10% to $83.5K on Trump's Tariff Pause

On April 9, Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a significant surge, jumping 10% to $83.5K following President Donald Trump's announcement of a 90-day pause on tariffs against other countries, excluding China. This relief rally was not limited to the crypto market but was also observed across U.S. equities. However, the ongoing U.S.-China tariff dispute poses a potential threat to BTC's price movements. Trump had previously increased tariffs on Chinese imports to 125% in response to China's retaliatory tariff hike of 84% against the U.S.

Analysts have mixed views on how the tariff showdown could impact BTC. Some analysts suggest that a potential deal between the U.S. and China could send BTC higher, as such an outcome is not yet priced into the market. According to analyst Joe McCann, a positive agreement with China could lead to a market explosion, with the Yuan (CNY) rallying higher against the US dollar (USD) serving as an indicator of such an agreement. However, China's push for a weak CNY could have negative implications for risk assets, including BTC, as noted by Bitwise’s head of alpha, Jeff Park. BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes echoed similar sentiments, suggesting that a lack of a deal could lead to money printing by the Fed and ultimately boost BTC.

The tariff fallout has also made a case for BTC, particularly in international trade settlements between Russia and China. The ongoing tariff showdown has created a cautious market environment, with increased demand for put options for further downside protection. From a price chart perspective, BTC has formed a bullish falling wedge pattern, suggesting that the downtrend momentum could lose steam soon and allow for a recovery. The bullish RSI divergence also supports the breakout prospects, with last year’s range-high above $70K serving as a pivotal level to watch if macro conditions improve.

In summary, the escalating trade war between the United States and China has had a significant impact on Bitcoin's price movements. While the crypto market has shown resilience in the face of these challenges, the ongoing tensions between the two economies are likely to continue to shape the trajectory of the crypto market. As the trade war continues to unfold, the potential for Bitcoin to serve as a safe haven during times of economic uncertainty remains a topic of intense debate among analysts and investors.