Bitcoin Surges 1.3% to $103,626 on Peace Talks, Trade Deal, Rate Cut Hopes

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading around $103,626, having reached an intraday high near $104,965. Despite not breaking through the $105,000 barrier, the overall sentiment remains bullish, driven by an improving global risk appetite. A significant factor contributing to this optimism is the upcoming Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Istanbul, scheduled for Thursday. These talks mark the first direct presidential-level negotiations since 2022 and were proposed by Russia, accepted by Ukraine under growing international pressure. The outcome of these talks, while uncertain, could boost investor confidence and drive risk-on assets like Bitcoin higher.

Additionally, a $600 billion U.S.-Saudi trade agreement has further lifted market sentiment. This agreement has led to a rollback in tariffs and sparked optimism across financial markets. The combination of these developments suggests a backdrop of easing geopolitical and economic tensions, allowing Bitcoin to maintain its stability and even gain amid volatility.

Adding to the bullish outlook is the growing belief that the U.S. Federal Reserve could cut rates sooner than expected. Following a lower-than-forecast Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, analysts now project the first rate cut as early as July, or more conservatively, by September. Rate cuts would weaken the U.S. dollar, encouraging investors to rotate into higher-risk assets like Bitcoin. The softer dollar and dovish Fed expectations help explain Bitcoin’s stability above the key $103,000 mark.

According to K33 Research, current market dynamics resemble those seen in late 2023 before a major breakout. Positive funding rates suggest that sentiment is tilting toward bullish territory once again. The technical outlook for Bitcoin remains bullish as the BTC/USD pair is holding firm above the 50-hour EMA at $103,612, with price action showing higher lows from the $95,828 swing. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $101,954 remains an important support level. A bounce from this zone reinforces the strength of the trendline. The MACD is still below zero but flattening, hinting that buyers may be regaining momentum. A decisive move above $104,000 with volume would confirm the next leg higher.

If the bullish scenario plays out, Bitcoin could revisit $105,716 and potentially extend gains to $107,031 or even $108,259. The trade setup suggests a buy zone between $103,400 and $103,600, with target prices at $105,700 and $107,000, and a stop loss below $101,950. This setup is suitable for trend-following strategies, and investors are advised to wait for confirmation before entry.