Bitcoin's Structural Shifts Defy Downturn: Bull Run's Long-Term Momentum Unshaken
Bitcoin Struggles Around $112,000, But Here's Why The Bull Run Is NotNOT-- Over Yet
Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a recent pullback, trading at approximately $112,737 as of September 23, 2025, a 1.08% decline over the past 24 hours[2]. Despite this short-term volatility, the cryptocurrency’s broader bull market remains intact, supported by historical performance trends and evolving market dynamics. September 2025 has already seen an 8% gain for BitcoinBTC--, marking its second-best September performance since 2012[1]. This defies traditional seasonality patterns, which historically see an average loss of 8% for the asset during the month[1].
The current bull cycle has diverged significantly from previous ones, particularly in terms of volatility. While earlier bull markets were characterized by sharp price swings and frequent drawdowns of up to 80%, the 2025 cycle has seen relatively muted corrections. Data from Glassnode shows that the largest drawdown from all-time highs this cycle has been just 30%, a stark contrast to historical norms[1]. This reduced volatility, however, has led to slower outperformance compared to traditional assets like the S&P 500, which has reached record highs[4].
Historical comparisons suggest Bitcoin’s current underperformance is temporary. During the 2024 bull cycle, Bitcoin initially lagged behind the S&P 500 but eventually caught up. A similar pattern is expected this time, with analysts noting that Bitcoin’s price consolidation between $110,000 and $120,000 is a precursor to renewed momentum[4]. Michael Saylor, co-founder of MicroStrategy, has reinforced this view, predicting that Bitcoin will outperform the S&P 500 by nearly 29% annually over the next 20 years. Saylor attributes this to Bitcoin’s fixed supply and decentralized nature, which he argues provide a more stable foundation for long-term value compared to fiat currencies and equities[5].
Recent market turbulence has also highlighted Bitcoin’s potential to decouple from traditional asset classes. Over three days in late September, the S&P 500 fell 12%, while Bitcoin lost only 5.51% before stabilizing. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink has described Bitcoin as an “uncorrelated asset,” a characterization gaining traction as investors seek hedges against macroeconomic risks. This shift in correlation could signal a structural change, positioning Bitcoin as a standalone driver of returns rather than a mirror of equity markets.
Technical indicators further support the case for a continued bull run. The Swing Failure Pattern (SFP), a liquidity-based reversal strategy, has been observed in Bitcoin’s price action. For instance, a failed attempt to break above key resistance levels—followed by a reversal—has been interpreted by analysts as a sign of institutional buying pressure and potential short-term corrections. Meanwhile, historical volatility metrics remain unusually low, suggesting that the market is entering a phase where large moves are more likely[1].
Despite these bullish undercurrents, risks remain. The bears currently dominate the market, with 86% of coins in the top 200 by market cap posting losses in the past 24 hours[2]. However, Bitcoin’s dominance of the cryptocurrency market at 57.81%[2] and its role as a store of value, as emphasized by Saylor, underscore its resilience. As macroeconomic catalysts—such as central bank decisions and inflation data—loom in the coming months, the interplay between Bitcoin’s structural advantages and external factors will likely determine the trajectory of the bull run.
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