La resiliencia estratégica de Bitcoin en medio de la incertidumbre política: preparación para la decisión sobre aranceles del 9 de enero.

The U.S. Supreme Court's impending decision on the legality of President Trump's tariffs-scheduled for January 9, 2026-represents a pivotal moment for global markets and macroeconomic stability. This ruling will not only test the boundaries of executive power under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) but also reshape trade dynamics, corporate earnings, and inflationary pressures. For investors, the event underscores the growing importance of macro-risk mitigation strategies, particularly in assets like Bitcoin, which has increasingly positioned itself as a hedge against policy-driven volatility.

Macroeconomic Implications of the Tariff Ruling

The ruling's outcome could trigger divergent economic trajectories. If the Court invalidates the tariffs, the U.S. Treasury may face a $133–$140 billion refund to importers, creating a fiscal shortfall that could necessitate increased bond issuance and higher Treasury yields. This scenario would likely ease cost pressures on import-dependent sectors such as retail, consumer goods, and electronics, potentially boosting S&P 500 earnings by 2.4% in 2026. Conversely, upholding the tariffs would perpetuate economic uncertainty, delaying market gains and maintaining elevated inflation risks.

The ruling also intersects with broader trade policy shifts. For instance, the 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 remain in place, while zero-for-zero tariff arrangements with the EU, Japan, and South Korea have insulated aviation sectors like Boeing. These asymmetries highlight the fragmented impact of protectionist policies, complicating corporate sourcing strategies and global supply chains.

Bitcoin's Role as a Macro-Risk Hedge

Bitcoin's performance in 2024–2025 has revealed a nuanced relationship with macroeconomic variables. While its correlation with the S&P 500 dropped to -0.299 by late 2025, indicating a divergence from equities, it has shown a strong 0.86 correlation with the Japanese yen over the past 90 days. This suggests that Bitcoin is increasingly treated as a leveraged expression of monetary policy shifts, particularly in Japan, where structural liquidity and yield differentials have driven capital flows.

Institutional investors are also recalibrating their exposure to Bitcoin amid policy uncertainty. Derivatives data reveals $10.65 billion in long positions vulnerable to liquidation if Bitcoin falls toward $84,000, while retail traders hold significant short positions. This asymmetry amplifies the asset's volatility, as forced selling could accelerate downward moves. However, Bitcoin's fixed supply schedule-now yielding 0.78–0.83% annual inflation- positions it as a superior hedge against fiat devaluation compared to gold's 1–1.5% rate.

Investor Positioning and Strategic Resilience

As the tariff ruling approaches, Bitcoin's price action reflects heightened sensitivity to macroeconomic signals. Currently trading near $91,000–$93,000, the asset is bracing for a potential fiscal shock if the tariffs are struck down. A favorable ruling could ease inflation expectations and corporate margins, favoring risk-on flows, while an adverse outcome might exacerbate policy uncertainty and real yield pressures.

Institutional flows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs remain cautious, with inflows often followed by immediate outflows, signaling tactical rather than strategic allocations. This hesitancy contrasts with the growing adoption of Bitcoin by corporate treasuries and sovereign entities, which have helped stabilize supply dynamics despite short-term volatility. For retail investors, Bitcoin's role as a macro-risk hedge is further complicated by its volatility; while it outperformed gold in long-term growth (200% CAGR over five years), it underperformed in 2025, finishing down 6% compared to the S&P 500's 16% gain.

Strategic Positioning for the January 9 Ruling

Investors navigating this uncertainty should consider Bitcoin's dual role as both a speculative asset and a macro-hedging tool. Given the 78% probability of the tariffs being struck down in prediction markets, a short-term risk-on bias may favor Bitcoin if the ruling eases cost pressures and corporate earnings. However, the asset's exposure to leveraged liquidations and yen-driven correlations necessitates careful position sizing.

For long-term holders, Bitcoin's structural resilience-bolstered by institutional adoption and fixed supply-remains intact. The removal of crypto-treasury names like MicroStrategy from MSCI indexes has reduced structural risk, making it easier for allocators to hold or rebuild BTC positions. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's data-dependent policy approach and Bitcoin's decoupling from equities suggest that the asset is evolving into a distinct macroeconomic category.

Conclusion

The January 9 tariff ruling epitomizes the intersection of policy uncertainty and macroeconomic volatility. While the outcome remains uncertain, Bitcoin's strategic resilience-rooted in its fixed supply, institutional adoption, and evolving macro correlations-positions it as a compelling hedge for investors. However, its volatility and leveraged exposure require disciplined risk management. As markets brace for the ruling, a balanced approach that combines tactical Bitcoin allocations with diversified macro-risk strategies will be critical for navigating the coming turbulence.