Bitcoin's Strategic Bullish Setup Near $116,652 Resistance: A Catalyst for a $165,745 Rally?

Bitcoin is at a pivotal juncture. After consolidating near $117,550 for weeks, the cryptocurrency now hovers just above a critical resistance level at $116,652, a threshold that could determine the next leg of its price trajectory. Technical and on-chain data suggest a strategic bullish setup, with analysts eyeing a potential rally to $165,745—a 40% surge from current levels—if the market can break through this psychological barrier.

Technical Analysis: A Tightening Triangle and Bullish Divergence

Bitcoin’s price action has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern, a classic technical indicator of impending volatility. The pattern, defined by converging support and resistance lines, has Bitcoin trading within a narrowing range. The key resistance at $116,652 is now in focus, with a successful breakout expected to invalidate the bearish bias and trigger a rally toward $165,745 [1].

Supporting this view is the Relative Strength Index (RSI), currently at 55, which suggests the asset is neither overbought nor oversold, leaving room for upward momentum. The MACD histogram remains in positive territory, indicating bullish momentum, while a bull flag pattern on the hourly chart reinforces the likelihood of a breakout above $111,980—a level that could act as a springboard to $120K–$145K [1].

However, the short-term outlook is not without risk. If Bitcoin fails to hold above $116,652, it could retest support levels as low as $94K–$100K [3]. This duality underscores the importance of volume and on-chain activity in confirming the strength of the breakout.

On-Chain Confirmation: Capital Inflows and Whale Activity

On-chain metrics paint a compelling picture of bullish sentiment. Spot market volume has surged 184% on Binance, with combined spot volume across major exchanges hitting $12.7B—a sign of robust retail participation [1]. Meanwhile, futures Open Interest has risen 7.3% to $45.4B, and funding rates have spiked 59.5% to $4.4M, reflecting increased capital inflow and a willingness to hold long positions [1].

Whale activity also suggests a redistribution of dormant coins, with large addresses accumulating BTC at a steady pace [1]. Daily active addresses remain above 740,000, a metric that historically correlates with price discovery and network adoption [3]. Analysts like Javon Marks have highlighted hidden bullish divergence on oscillators, a pattern that has historically preceded major rallies [3].

Macro Drivers: Halving Anticipation and Institutional Demand

Beyond technical and on-chain signals, macroeconomic factors are amplifying the bullish case. The 2025 Bitcoin halving, expected to reduce block rewards and tighten supply, is already priced into the market. Historical precedent shows that halvings often precede multi-year bull runs, with the next event likely to act as a catalyst for institutional adoption [1].

Institutional demand is also surging. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted significant inflows, with major players like BlackRock and Fidelity expanding their offerings. This trend is broadening Bitcoin’s investor base and reducing its volatility profile, making it a more attractive asset for long-term capital [1].

Risks and the Path Forward

While the setup is compelling, risks remain. A breakdown below $116,652 could trigger a short-term dip to $94K–$100K, testing the resilience of bullish sentiment [3]. However, the long-term trend remains intact, with Bitcoin’s higher lows since 2022 reinforcing a structural bullish bias [3].

For investors, the key is to monitor volume during the breakout. A surge in buying pressure above $116,652 would validate the $165,745 target, while a failure to hold could delay the rally until December 2025, when macroeconomic conditions and halving-related optimism may reignite demand [3].

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s strategic setup near $116,652 is a convergence of technical, on-chain, and macroeconomic signals. The symmetrical triangle, bullish divergence, and capital inflows all point to a high-probability breakout scenario. While risks exist, the projected rally to $165,745 is not just a pipedream—it’s a mathematically and historically grounded possibility. For investors, the next few weeks will be critical in determining whether Bitcoin reclaims its status as the ultimate store of value or enters a new phase of dominance.

Source:
[1] Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Hovers at $117,550 as Markets Brace for Breakout Move [https://www.fxleaders.com/news/2025/07/24/bitcoin-price-prediction-btc-hovers-at-117550-as-markets-brace-for-breakout-move/]
[2] Bitcoin Bull Signals Emerge Near $116,652, Analysts Eye $165,745 Target [https://www.kucoin.com/news/flash/bitcoin-bull-signals-emerge-near-116-652-analysts-eye-165-745-target]