Bitcoin Steady Near $84,500 as U.S. Markets Close for Good Friday

Bitcoin maintained a steady price near $84,500 on Friday, remaining within its trading range as U.S. markets observed the Good Friday closure. This period of inactivity in traditional markets, including equities, bonds, and commodities, provided a unique opportunity to gauge investor sentiment in the crypto market, free from the broader liquidity and institutional flows that typically influence it.

The subdued price action in Bitcoin followed a volatile session on Thursday, during which traditional assets experienced significant movements. Gold prices surged by 1.74%, driven by a combination of dollar weakness and increased physical demand. This rise was further supported by Citi's decision to raise its three-month gold target to $3,500, citing supply deficits and increased purchases by newly authorized Chinese insurers. The bullion market continues to be influenced by physical tightness, with strategic allocations becoming more common among state-linked institutions.

Oil prices also saw a notable increase, rising by 5.04% after the U.S. announced fresh sanctions on Iran’s state-linked shipping firm, Sahara Thunder. This move curtailed expectations of supply normalization, raising concerns about the availability of key Persian Gulf crude. The announcement, made during a period of thin liquidity, amplified price movements into the Thursday close. Additionally, U.S. dollar weakness, exacerbated by the European Central Bank's rate cut and political uncertainty in the U.S., further bolstered both commodity moves. President Trump's speculation about removing Fed Chair Jerome Powell added to the pressure on the dollar, benefiting dollar-denominated alternatives.

Risk assets, including the S&P 500 futures, experienced a retreat on Thursday, dropping by 1.1% before the close. This sell-off was attributed to judicial and executive tensions over central bank independence, following a Supreme Court ruling that potentially eased the path for removing the heads of independent federal agencies. Combined with White House commentary about replacing Powell, futures trading responded with reduced risk appetite. Bond prices also adjusted, with U.S. 10-year Treasury prices declining marginally by 0.03%, reflecting a slight yield uptick. New York Fed President John Williams pushed back on expectations for near-term easing, noting that inflation data did not warrant immediate action. The next scheduled release of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE index, on April 30 added pressure to reposition ahead of the data, even as fixed income desks prepared to close for the long weekend.

Chinese 10-year government bond prices remained stable, reflecting Beijing’s plan to hold Loan Prime Rates steady. Officials opted to maintain current levels to preserve financial stability, especially as the yuan showed resilience amid shifting global trade conditions. Despite the activity in traditional markets, Bitcoin’s response was subdued. The digital asset held its level even as gold, oil, and equities reacted to macroeconomic and geopolitical developments. This divergence, while not unusual during U.S. holidays, reflects both reduced institutional volume and the absence of a dominant crypto-specific catalyst. In recent sessions, Bitcoin has mostly outperformed macro flows, diverging from its recent correlation with equity futures and inflation-sensitive assets.

Traders are now watching for holiday developments in the ongoing global trade war, which has seen Trump escalate via Truth Social over the past weekends. Repositioning may begin when CME futures and bond markets resume trading. Until then, Bitcoin is one of the few live indicators of sentiment in a macro environment increasingly shaped by policy signaling and cross-asset volatility.