Bitcoin Stalls at Key Threshold as Volatility Looms

Cryptocurrencies Bitcoin and Ethereum have shown mixed performance in recent trading sessions, with Bitcoin gaining ground while Ethereum remained largely flat. As of 9:15 p.m. ET, Bitcoin rose 0.57% to $111,500.30, while Ethereum fell slightly by 0.08% to $4,288.94. This divergence highlights the distinct dynamics influencing each asset class, as market participants continue to assess broader macroeconomic indicators ahead of key inflation data reports expected soon [1].

Bitcoin’s movement over the past 24 hours reflected increased trading activity. The asset reached an intraday high of $112,869.24 before retreating to the lower $111,000s. Trading volume increased by 58% to $40 billion, signaling heightened interest among traders. Meanwhile, Ethereum followed a similar pattern, hitting an intraday peak of $4,381.28 before retreating. Its trading volume surged by 76% in the same period, suggesting increased market activity and anticipation of future price swings [1].

Market observers have noted Bitcoin’s continued struggle to maintain a sustained break above its 20-week moving average, currently near $112,000. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe, a widely followed figure in the crypto space, emphasized the significance of this level and suggested that a failure to break through could trigger further tests of recent lows before a potential reversal. “If we can’t break it again, just before CPI, I assume we’ll see one more test of the lows and reverse back up,” he noted. For Ethereum, the focus is on a potential correction similar to Bitcoin’s 2020 drop. Angel investor Ted Pillows predicts a similar 25%-30% correction in Ethereum, which would bring it to a range of $3,500-$3,700, representing a key support band in the bull market [1].

The global cryptocurrency market capitalization stood at $3.87 trillion as of the latest data, having surged by 1.09% in the past 24 hours. This growth was supported by the performance of altcoins such as Dogecoin and XRP, which saw gains of 4.68% and 2.82%, respectively. Solana also rose by 3.55%, contributing to the broader market’s resilience amid macroeconomic uncertainty. In terms of market dominance, Bitcoin’s share fell slightly to 57.5%, while Ethereum’s remained stable at just above 13% [1].

Looking at macroeconomic factors, the upcoming release of inflation data, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), is expected to shape market sentiment in the short term. Traders currently price in an 89.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its next meeting, according to the CMC FedWatch tool. However, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), a key barometer of market fear and uncertainty, has shown signs of divergence. The spread between the October and September VIX futures contracts has widened to 2.2%, signaling heightened expectations for volatility once the rate-cut decision is out of the way. Traders are currently discounting risk ahead of the Fed meeting, but October futures suggest a more turbulent outlook [1][3].

The potential for increased volatility has raised concerns among market participants, particularly as the VIX has historically exhibited a strong negative correlation with stock prices. A sharp increase in volatility could lead to a downswing in equities, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite having closed at record highs in recent sessions. The ripple effect of such volatility is expected to extend into the cryptocurrency market, given Bitcoin’s close alignment with broader market sentiment. Recent data also show that Bitcoin’s volatility indices have reached record high correlation levels with the VIX, highlighting its increasing sensitivity to macroeconomic events [1][3].

Source: [1] Bitcoin, Dogecoin, XRP Gain; Ethereum Trades Flat ... (https://www.benzinga.com/crypto/cryptocurrency/25/09/47562016/bitcoin-dogecoin-xrp-gain-ethereum-trades-flat-analyst-predicts-eth-reversal-before-q4-parabolic-rally) [2] Understanding the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) in Investing (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/vix.asp) [3] Market Storm Likely After September Fed Interest-Rate Cut ... (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/market-storm-likely-september-fed-150304974.html) [4] Short-Term Inflation Expectations Tick Up, Job Finding ... (https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2025/20250908)