Why Bitcoin Stalls at $109K: ETF Exodus and Macro Woes Weigh on Bulls

Bitcoin traded near $109,000 in early October 2025, as market participants closely monitored critical support and resistance levels amid mixed ETF flows and on-chain data. Analysts highlighted a pivotal juncture for the asset, with a potential breakout above $112,500 or a breakdown below $107,000 likely to dictate the near-term trajectory.

Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced significant outflows in September 2025, with U.S.-listed products recording a net outflow of $258 million on September 25 alone$250M Leaves BTC ETFs as Price Hits $109K: Will It Hold?^[9]. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) was the sole ETF to register inflows during the period, while others, including Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), saw heavy redemptions$250M Leaves BTC ETFs as Price Hits $109K: Will It Hold?^[9]. Over the preceding weeks, cumulative outflows from Bitcoin ETFs reached $7.2 billion, marking the longest streak of weekly net outflows since their launch in January 2024Why Are Bitcoin ETFs Seeing Huge Outflows in 2025?^[7]. Ethereum ETFs mirrored this trend, with a $251 million outflow on September 25, the fourth consecutive day of redemptions$250M Leaves BTC ETFs as Price Hits $109K: Will It Hold?^[9].

The outflows coincided with a broader selloff in Bitcoin, which fell to a four-week low of $108,700 on September 25$250M Leaves BTC ETFs as Price Hits $109K: Will It Hold?^[9]. Institutional investors, who had previously driven inflows during the 2024 bull run, appeared to be rebalancing portfolios amid macroeconomic uncertainties, including the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance and regulatory delaysWhy Are Bitcoin ETFs Seeing Huge Outflows in 2025?^[7]. On-chain analytics firm Glassnode noted that long-term holders had realized over 3.4 million BTC in profits, signaling market exhaustion$250M Leaves BTC ETFs as Price Hits $109K: Will It Hold?^[9].

Bitcoin’s price stabilized near the $109,000 support level, with bulls successfully defending this threshold after a sharp decline in early SeptemberBitcoin Holds $107K Support as Bulls Eye $112.5K Breakout^[10]. Technical indicators, however, suggested fragility: the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) hovered just above 1, indicating some holders were selling at a loss, while the Short-Term Holder NUPL indicator neared zero, signaling heightened liquidation risks$250M Leaves BTC ETFs as Price Hits $109K: Will It Hold?^[9].

Markets analysts emphasized the criticality of the $112,500 resistance level. A breakout above this mark could reinvigorate bullish momentum, targeting $115,500 and potentially $118,000Bitcoin Holds $107K Support as Bulls Eye $112.5K Breakout^[10]. Conversely, a breakdown below $109,000 would likely trigger a cascade of stop-loss orders, with the next support levels at $107,000, $105,000, and $96,000Bitcoin Holds $107K Support as Bulls Eye $112.5K Breakout^[10]. CryptoQuant analysts noted that a decisive close below $109K–$110K with a drawdown exceeding 15% would signal a deeper correction$250M Leaves BTC ETFs as Price Hits $109K: Will It Hold?^[9].

The selloff occurred against a backdrop of macroeconomic headwinds. The Federal Reserve’s September rate cut initially spurred optimism, but Chair Jerome Powell’s cautious remarks tempered expectations, reinforcing dollar strength and risk-off sentimentBitcoin (BTC) News: Could Crash to $107K as DXY Prints^[11]. The dollar index (DXY) formed a bullish reversal pattern, historically signaling a shift in favor of the U.S. currency, which often correlates with crypto weaknessBitcoin (BTC) News: Could Crash to $107K as DXY Prints^[11].

Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETFs faced scrutiny as corporate treasury holdings of the asset came under pressure. Over 200 companies held Bitcoin in their balance sheets, but with prices falling, some firms risked selling to cover liabilitiesBitcoin, XRP, and Ethereum Are Falling. Here Are the 3 Main …^[6]. Additionally, leveraged positions in the crypto market exacerbated volatility, with $1.7 billion in liquidations recorded in late SeptemberBitcoin Price Forecast - BTC-USD Falls to $112,725 After $1.7B …^[12].

Analysts remain divided on Bitcoin’s immediate future. While some, like Arthur Hayes, pointed to improving bank credit supply indices as a potential bullish catalystBitcoin ETFs Battle $5.3 Billion Loss, Recovery Signals Emerge^[8], others, including Markus Thielen of 10x Research, warned of a deeper correction if prices revisited $107,500$250M Leaves BTC ETFs as Price Hits $109K: Will It Hold?^[9]. Binance data suggested the current decline was within a controlled correction range, with a base case scenario of consolidation above $109K followed by a retest of $118K–$122K$250M Leaves BTC ETFs as Price Hits $109K: Will It Hold?^[9].

For institutional investors, the period underscored the importance of liquidity management and risk mitigation. VanEck’s HODL Bitcoin Trust, for example, maintained a 16,780 BTC holding ($1.83 billion) despite outflows, reflecting resilience in long-term positioningBitcoin and Ethereum ETF Outflows in September 2025: What It …^[1]. Retail traders, meanwhile, were advised to monitor ETF flows and on-chain metrics for early signals of market sentiment shifts.