Bitcoin's Stalling at $90K: Leverage Risks vs. Structural Buying in the New Year

Bitcoin's price consolidation near $90,000 has sparked a critical debate: is this a temporary pause before a 2026 rally, or a leverage-driven trap amplifying downside risks? To answer, we must dissect on-chain behavior, ETF flows, macroeconomic trends, and technical fragility. The data reveals a market caught between structural accumulation and speculative fragility, with the outcome hinging on whether institutional demand and macro conditions outweigh leveraged selling pressure.

On-Chain Metrics: A Mixed Signal of Accumulation and Weakness

Bitcoin's on-chain metrics in November 2025 suggest a fragile equilibrium. The short-term holder (STH) MVRV ratio stands at 1.61, below its 100-day simple moving average-a level historically associated with buying opportunities according to analysis. However, the STH realized price of $113,000 acts as a critical support threshold. If Bitcoin holds above this level, it could signal renewed confidence and a potential rally toward $160,000–$200,000 based on price cycle data. Conversely, a breakdown below $85,000 risks triggering further liquidations, as seen in recent weeks.

Profit and loss dynamics underscore caution: 88% of Bitcoin addresses remain in profit, down from earlier highs, while the STH loss ratio of 0.07x highlights short-term fragility as data shows. Long-term holders (LTHs), however, appear more resilient, with an MVRV ratio near $37,400. Historical patterns suggest LTHs could push prices toward $163,000–$165,000 if their MVRV reaches 4.37x per market analysis. Address activity also tells a nuanced story-mid-cycle holders are selling, but older, long-term holders remain stable, and whales (10K–100K BTC) have slightly increased holdings amid volatility according to Vaneck analysis. This duality points to a market in accumulation mode, though liquidity constraints in derivatives markets complicate the picture.

ETF Flows and Macroeconomic Uncertainty

Bitcoin ETF flows in November 2025 reflected short-term caution, with repeated net outflows driven by thin liquidity and year-end portfolio rebalancing according to analysis. Over $903 million in ETF redemptions exacerbated price declines, pushing the Fear & Greed Index to an extreme fear level of 11 as reported. Yet, institutional demand remains intact. Major fund managers continue to add Bitcoin as a core holding, and 94% of institutional investors view blockchain technology as a long-term asset according to SSGA insights. Regulatory clarity-such as the U.S. approval of spot ETFs and the EU's MiCA framework-has further solidified Bitcoin's institutional appeal per Grayscale research.

The macroeconomic outlook for 2026 hinges on three factors: Federal Reserve policy, regulatory progress, and liquidity conditions. Elevated interest rates (5.5% as of Q4 2025) have drawn capital toward traditional assets, dampening Bitcoin's role as a diversification tool according to OneSafe analysis. However, rate cuts or quantitative easing could reverse this trend. Grayscale anticipates growing demand for Bitcoin as an alternative store of value amid fiat currency risks, projecting a bullish 2026 if macroeconomic conditions align per their outlook.

Technical Fragility: Leverage-Driven Liquidations and Derivatives Risks

November 2025's price drop below $85,000 triggered over $2 billion in daily liquidations, predominantly from long positions according to market data. These cascading liquidations were compounded by a 20% decline in Bitcoin options open interest since mid-October and a 32% drop in USD terms as observed. Negative perpetual funding rates on platforms like MEXC signaled an overheated market with excessive long exposure according to analysis.

The leverage ratio and net positioning data paint a picture of deleveraging. Open interest fell 0.8% to $75.47 billion, with Bitcoin's long/short ratio at 1.64x as reported. Futures basis collapsed to its lowest levels since 2023, and ETF outflows of $3.5 billion directly pressured spot prices according to market data. Key support at $85,000 and resistance between $90,000–$94,000 now dictate the market's trajectory. A breakout above $91,000 could reignite bullish momentum, while a breakdown risks further capitulation.

Balancing Structural Buying and Leverage Risks

The data reveals a market at a crossroads. On-chain metrics and institutional demand suggest Bitcoin is in an accumulation phase, with LTHs and whales quietly accumulating. However, derivatives-driven fragility-exemplified by $17 billion in notional losses from leveraged positions during October's 18.26% price drop-highlights systemic risks according to Bitget reporting.

For investors, the key question is whether structural buying can offset leverage-driven selling. If Bitcoin holds above $113,000 (STH realized price) and macroeconomic conditions improve (e.g., Fed easing, regulatory clarity), the $160,000–$200,000 target becomes plausible. Conversely, a prolonged bearish phase-triggered by rising U.S. Treasury yields or renewed leverage contraction-could push prices toward $60,000–$70,000 according to trading analysis.

Conclusion: A Cautious Case for 2026

Bitcoin's stalling at $90,000 is neither a clear buying opportunity nor a definitive trap. It is a consolidation phase shaped by conflicting forces: structural accumulation from institutions and long-term holders versus leveraged selling and macroeconomic headwinds. Investors should monitor three indicators in the coming months:
1. Price action around $113,000 (STH realized price) and $85,000 (key support).
2. ETF inflows/outflows and their impact on spot liquidity.
3. Federal Reserve policy shifts and their effect on risk appetite.

If macroeconomic conditions stabilize and institutional demand accelerates, 2026 could see a breakout. But until then, patience and risk management remain paramount.