Bitcoin Speculators' $7B Loss: Capitulation Below Cost Basis

Bitcoin speculators sent $7B to exchanges at a loss in BTC price crash

Bitcoin (BTC) short-term holders moved nearly 80,000 BTC to exchanges at a loss as BTC/USD hit 15-week lows. The latest data from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant hints at the largest loss-making sell-off of 2025. Bitcoin speculators capitulate below cost basis

Bitcoin short-term holders (STHs) — entities hodling for up to 155 days — appear to have capitulated in fear during the latest crypto market downturn. As BTC/USD fell to near $86,000 on Feb. 25, these speculators sent a giant 79,300 BTC ($7 billion) to exchange wallets in a 24-hour period. “This is the largest Bitcoin sell-off of 2025,” CryptoQuant contributing analyst Axel Adler Jr. reacted in part of commentary while uploading the figures to X.

The chart shows rolling 24-hour loss-making transactions topping any other period so far this year. While it does not confirm that users sold coins sent to exchange wallets, the data underscores the atmosphere of uncertainty among newer market participants. STH in-loss exchange transactions. Source: CryptoQuant

“Yesterday’s price drop likely triggered panic selling, and if further corrections occur, similar behavior could reemerge,” fellow contributor Avocado_onchain continued in one of CryptoQuant’s “Quicktake” blog posts on Feb. 26. The post analyzed the spent output profit ratio (SOPR) metric, which tracks the ratio of coins moved in profit or at a loss onchain.

STH-SOPR fell to 0.964 on Feb. 25, its lowest since the start of August last year at the height of the Japanese yen carry trade unwind. “On the other hand, long-term holders have remained largely unfazed by the recent plunge, maintaining their holdings and providing support against additional price declines,” Avocado_onchain observed.

Continuing, James Check, creator of onchain data resource Checkonchain, argued that crossing the aggregate breakeven point for the STH cohort at $90,000 would be a key turning point. “It’s kind