Bitcoin's Silent Resilience: How Miner Behavior Signals a Contrarian Bottom

The Bitcoin mining sector faces its latest test: daily revenues have plummeted to a two-month low of $34 million as of June 22, 2025, yet miners are not capitulating. This divergence—declining income paired with stubbornly low selling—offers a contrarian lens through which to assess Bitcoin's undervaluation and potential market turnaround.

The Revenue Decline: Context and Contradictions

Bitcoin miner revenues have fallen sharply since early 2025, dropping 27% from their recent high of $53.55 million in May. This decline reflects a combination of reduced transaction fees and price stagnation near $85,000—a pullback from late 2024's $108,000 peak. However, the narrative of crisis is undermined by miner behavior:

1. Minimal Forced Selling: Miner wallet outflows have collapsed from 23,000 BTC/day in February to just 6,000 BTC/day in June. Even Satoshi-era miners—those who mined Bitcoin between 2009–2011—are holding, having sold only 150 BTC this year versus 10,000 BTC in 2024.
2. Growing Reserves: Mid-sized miners (holding 100–1,000 BTC addresses) have added 4,000 BTC to their reserves since March, reaching a high of 65,000 BTC—the highest since November 2024.
3. Operational Resilience: Despite a 3.5% drop in network hash rate since June 16—the largest decline since July 2024—miners maintain a 48% operating margin, suggesting they can endure current conditions without liquidation.

This behavior contrasts sharply with historical cycles. For instance, after the 2024 halving, when block rewards halved from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, miners typically sold aggressively to offset lost income. This time, they are not.

Historical Correlations: Miner Metrics as Leading Indicators

Miner behavior has long been a contrarian signal. Historically, prolonged periods of low selling pressure have preceded Bitcoin's price rebounds:

• 2018 Bear Market: Miners reduced sales as prices fell to $3,000, with hash rate stability preceding the 2019 bull run.
• 2022 Crypto Winter: Despite a 75% price drop, miner reserves grew as operators held BTC, a precursor to the 2023 rebound.

The current environment mirrors these patterns. A would reveal that while revenue dips, price resistance has held above $80,000—a level once seen as critical support. Meanwhile, would highlight the inverse relationship: as selling pressure fades, price volatility stabilizes.

Why This Matters for Investors

The absence of forced selling suggests Bitcoin's undervaluation is being absorbed by miners themselves. Three key implications emerge:

1. Reduced Sell-Side Pressure: With miners hoarding BTC, the supply of coins entering exchanges diminishes. This tightens liquidity and supports price floors, as seen in 2022–2023.
2. Long-Term Holder Confidence: Satoshi-era miners' reluctance to sell signals belief in Bitcoin's future value. These “old-school” holders, who survived Bitcoin's early volatility, are often among the most patient. Their behavior could foreshadow a sustained holding period until macroeconomic or technical catalysts ignite demand.
3. Network Health: The 3.5% hash rate drop, while notable, has not triggered mass exits. A would show that hash rate declines typically precede price rebounds, as seen post-halving events.

Investment Strategy: Positioning for a Bottoming Phase

The data points to a strategic opportunity:

• Buy the Dips: With miner selling suppressed and price resistance intact, dips below $85,000 could be buying opportunities.
• Hold for the Long Term: Miners' accumulation suggests Bitcoin is undervalued relative to its fundamentals. Investors should prioritize dollar-cost averaging into the $80,000–$90,000 range.
• Monitor Miner Metrics: Track miner revenue and sell volume. A rebound in revenue (e.g., back to $40 million+) or a sudden spike in sales would signal a shift in sentiment.

Conclusion

Bitcoin's miners are sending a clear message: they see value in today's prices. Their refusal to sell despite falling revenues marks a critical divergence from historical patterns, suggesting we may be near a bottoming phase. For investors, this is a contrarian call to act—while the market tests patience, the foundation for a new cycle is being quietly laid.

As the old adage goes: “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” Today's miners are the latter—greedy to hold, fearful to sell. That's a sign to take notice.