Bitcoin's Short-Term Holders Take Profits, Spot Market Drives 20% Rally

Bitcoin's short-term holders have begun to take profits, as indicated by the Short-Term Holder Realized Profit metric surging to around 3 standard deviations above its 90-day average. This increase suggests a notable rise in profit-taking activity. However, historical data from past cycles, particularly during price rallies to All-Time Highs (ATH), shows that this metric often reaches over 5 standard deviations. This implies that sustaining the current upward trend requires even more substantial profit-taking pressure to counter the continuous buying demand.

Bitcoin's recent ascent to near its ATH has been primarily driven by the spot market, bolstered by strong on-chain accumulation and off-chain inflows. The demand is largely fueled by spot ETFs and major spot exchanges. A critical cost support area has been established around $95,000, accompanied by a decrease in selling pressure, which further solidifies the upward trend.

In contrast, the derivative market appears to be lagging. Open interest and funding rates have not fully aligned with the spot market's upward momentum. The options market reflects a cautious yet optimistic outlook, while the futures market shows minimal signs of excessive long leverage. This divergence suggests that while the spot market is robust, the derivative market is more reserved, possibly indicating a wait-and-see approach from traders.