Bitcoin's Seasonal Rebound and Strategic Entry Points for $100K Retake

Bitcoin's price action in late 2025 has been a masterclass in the interplay between technical indicators and macroeconomic forces. As the market navigates a fragile recovery from November's sharp selloff, the alignment of bearish technical signals with dovish Federal Reserve expectations creates a unique inflection point. This article dissects the mechanics of Bitcoin's potential $100,000 retake, focusing on how seasonal trends, macroeconomic catalysts, and technical levels could converge to unlock strategic entry opportunities.

Technical Indicators: A Bearish Short-Term Bias

Bitcoin's November-December 2025 price trajectory reveals a bearish near-term bias. On November 30, 2025, Bitcoin closed at $90,798.57, trading within a narrow range of $90,521.59 to $91,052.01. The 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA) stood at $103,422 and $104,527, respectively, both above the current price-a classic bearish divergence. Meanwhile, the 14-day RSI of 40.74 suggests a neutral market, neither overbought nor oversold, but the Fear & Greed Index at 28 underscores widespread pessimism.

Key support levels are critical to monitor. The immediate support at $90,334 (S1) and $89,844 (S2) could act as temporary floors, while the strongest support at $89,460 (S3) represents a psychological threshold. On the resistance side, $91,207 (R1) and $92,081 (R3) are pivotal for a breakout. However, the inability to reclaim the $100,000 level-a psychological and technical milestone-risks reinforcing the bearish narrative.

Macroeconomic Catalysts: Fed Policy and the "Santa Claus Rally"

While technicals paint a cautious picture, macroeconomic factors introduce a bullish counterweight. The Federal Reserve's December 2025 policy outlook has shifted dramatically. By November 20, Bitcoin had fallen below $86,000 amid Fed signals that further rate cuts were unlikely and inflation remained stubbornly high. However, by late November, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December surged to 84.7%, driven by soft inflation data and dovish central bank rhetoric.

This shift is critical. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding risk assets like Bitcoin, historically correlating with price rebounds. JPMorgan analysts have even labeled Bitcoin a "macro asset," emphasizing its growing sensitivity to global liquidity trends over traditional crypto drivers like halving cycles. Additionally, the end of quantitative tightening on December 1 could inject liquidity into risk markets, further supporting Bitcoin's recovery.

Seasonal patterns also align with these macroeconomic tailwinds. Historical data shows a "Santa Claus rally" in December, where Bitcoin often consolidates after November volatility. While the market remains fragile-perpetual open interest has dropped, and liquidity is patchy-this seasonal tendency, combined with the Fed's potential rate cut, creates a compelling case for a short-term rebound.

Strategic Entry Points: Balancing Technical and Macro Signals

For investors seeking to capitalize on Bitcoin's potential $100K retake, the interplay between technical levels and macroeconomic catalysts offers a roadmap.

1. Support-Level Breakouts: A rebound from the $89,460 (S3) level could trigger a short-term rally toward $91,207 (R1) and beyond. If the Fed delivers a rate cut on December 10, this could amplify buying pressure, testing the $100,000 threshold.

2. Dovish Policy Triggers: A 25-basis-point rate cut would likely boost risk appetite, potentially propelling Bitcoin above $92,081 (R3). This scenario aligns with KuCoin's December 2025 forecast of an average target of $110,548, driven by institutional adoption and liquidity shifts.

3. Seasonal Consolidation: If Bitcoin consolidates between $90,000 and $92,000 in early December, it could set the stage for a late-month breakout. The Santa Claus rally, historically tied to year-end optimism, may provide the final push to reclaim $100,000.

Risks and Considerations

While the alignment of technical and macroeconomic factors is promising, risks persist. A failure to hold above $89,460 could reignite the downtrend, while unexpected inflation data or geopolitical shocks could derail the Fed's rate-cut narrative. Additionally, Bitcoin's high correlation with traditional risk assets-such as U.S. equities-means broader market volatility could spill over.

Conclusion

Bitcoin's path to $100,000 in late 2025 hinges on a delicate balance of technical resilience and macroeconomic tailwinds. The Fed's December rate-cut decision, seasonal liquidity trends, and key support/resistance levels form a convergence of signals that could catalyze a rebound. For strategic investors, the optimal entry points lie at critical technical levels ($89,460–$90,334) and around the December 10 Fed meeting. While caution is warranted, the alignment of these factors suggests a high-probability opportunity for those willing to navigate the volatility.