La resiliencia del Bitcoin en medio de las incertidumbres macroeconómicas: ¿Es ahora el momento adecuado para comprar valores a precios bajos?

Bitcoin's price action in late 2025 and early 2026 has been a study in resilience, navigating a volatile macroeconomic landscape marked by divergent central bank policies, geopolitical tensions, and exchange-specific risks. As the cryptocurrency consolidates within a defined range, investors are left to weigh whether the current pullback presents a strategic entry point or a cautionary bearish signal.

Consolidation and Key Levels

By mid-December 2025, Bitcoin had settled into a narrow consolidation phase, oscillating between $92,000 and $94,000. This range tightened further in late December, with the asset hovering near $90,800 and consolidating between $90,500 and $91,000. Critical support levels emerged at $85,000–$88,000, while resistance remained stubborn at $92,000–$93,000. A dramatic capitulation event in late 2025 briefly pushed prices below $82,000, but the market rebounded sharply, testing the durability of these levels.

The final week of 2025 brought heightened volatility, including a $23 billion options expiry on December 26 that triggered a sharp drop to the $80k–$82k range. Compounding the chaos, a Binance flash crash on December 25 temporarily pushed Bitcoin to $24,000 on the exchange's USD1 pair before recovering above $87,000. These events underscored the fragility of liquidity in crypto markets but also highlighted Bitcoin's ability to rebound from extreme bearish scenarios.

Technical Indicators and Institutional Sentiment

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's Relative Strength Index (RSI) remained above the neutral 50 level in early January 2026, signaling sustained buying momentum. The TRIX indicator, which measures momentum trends, showed a positive slope as selling pressure waned. However, the EMA (Exponential Moving Average) ribbon acted as a short-term pressure point, with repeated rejections below $92,000 indicating that sellers still controlled immediate-term momentum.

Institutional confidence appeared to stabilize in early January 2026, with Bitcoin ETFs recording a $471 million inflow on January 2. This marked a reversal from late 2025, when capital outflows had dominated. Such inflows suggest that institutional players may be positioning for a potential rebound, though caution remains warranted given the broader macroeconomic headwinds.

On-Chain Signals and Cyclical Bottoms

On-chain data provided mixed signals. The Puell Multiple, a metric used to gauge miner selling pressure, entered the "buy" zone, suggesting a potential cyclical bottom was forming. Whale wallets also resumed accumulation, a historically significant sign of long-term bullish sentiment. Yet, the broader market mood remained bearish in November and early December, with Bitcoin closing below the $96,000 support level and erasing 2025 gains. The next major support levels-$83,000–$84,000 and the 2024 consolidation zone of $69,000–$72,000- remain critical watchpoints for further downside risk.

Macro Uncertainty and Strategic Entry Points

The macroeconomic backdrop remains a double-edged sword. The Federal Reserve's rate cuts and the Bank of Japan's tightening created a liquidity squeeze for leveraged crypto investors, while renewed trade war rhetoric and aggressive U.S. tariff threats further dampened risk appetite. These factors complicate the case for aggressive buying, even as technical and on-chain indicators hint at a potential bottom.

For strategic entry points, investors might focus on key support levels. A break below $85,000 could test the $83,000–$84,000 zone, offering a high-risk, high-reward opportunity if the Puell Multiple and whale activity confirm a cyclical trough. Conversely, a rebound above $92,000 could reignite bullish momentum, particularly if ETF inflows continue. Positioning near the $85k–$88k range, with tight stop-loss orders, may balance risk and reward in this consolidating market.

Conclusion

Bitcoin's resilience in late 2025 and early 2026 demonstrates its capacity to endure extreme volatility, but the macroeconomic environment remains fraught with uncertainty. While technical and on-chain indicators suggest a potential inflection point, investors must remain cautious. Strategic entry points near key support levels, combined with disciplined risk management, could position buyers to capitalize on a potential rebound-provided the broader market dynamics align with a sustained recovery.