Bitcoin Ranges Between $80,000-$90,000 Amid 145% U.S. Tariffs on China

QCP Capital has released its daily market observation, noting that after a week of tariff brinkmanship, risk assets have begun to stabilize. The U.S. imposed tariffs as high as 145% on Chinese imports, to which China retaliated with 125% tariffs. Despite the immense scale of these tariffs, they are seen as more symbolic than market-driven factors, contrasting sharply with the panic triggered during the "Liberation Day" period.

Following Friday's close, the Trump administration quietly exempted the latest tariffs on smartphones, computers, and chips. Despite the stalemate continuing, risk assets priced in optimistic sentiment, even as the U.S. seemed to be negotiating with China and playing a game with the bond market and itself.

In the crypto market, Bitcoin's risk reversal remains bearish until June, indicating some short-term caution. However, the long-term sentiment is becoming more positive. On Saturday, aggressive buying of 800 contracts of BTC-27MAR26-100k-C was observed. Bitcoin continues to range between $80,000 and $90,000, possibly continuing sideways as a "wait-and-see" strategy in response to the tariff situation.

QCP Capital advises a cautious approach in the near term regarding the tariff situation. This strategy is driven by the recent volatility in the market, which has been influenced by geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic trends. The inability of Bitcoin to sustain its rally has heightened investor caution, particularly as the asset increasingly correlates with tech stocks and risk-sensitive assets.

Traders are growing wary of aggressive monetary tightening or disappointing economic data, which could easily tip markets into another sell-off. A weaker inflation print could help offset the inflationary overhang brought on by blanket tariffs, which have added uncertainty to both equities and crypto markets.

From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin is navigating a delicate range. The asset has lost support at both the 111-day and 200-day moving averages, with the 365-day MA at $76,000 now representing the last meaningful level of support. Holding above this threshold is crucial to prevent a deeper correction. Reclaiming the short-term holder cost basis near $93,000 could signal a return of upward momentum.

Should Bitcoin fail to hold $80,000, analysts warn of a potential drop toward the $65,000–$71,000 range, an area identified by multiple on-chain models as a critical zone for long-term support. This range represents the average cost basis of active holders, excluding long-dormant or lost coins, reflecting solid investor conviction and reducing the likelihood of panic selling during corrections.

The recent volatility in the crypto market has been exacerbated by the escalating trade war between the U.S. and China. Trump's announcement of a 125% tariff on Chinese imports, citing Beijing’s lack of respect for global trade norms, has heightened geopolitical tensions. China responded swiftly with 84% tariffs on U.S. imports, effective April 10, risking undermining investor sentiment and reigniting fears that had recently begun to ease.

The long-term sentiment in the crypto market remains positive, with QCP Capital advising a "wait-and-see" strategy in the near term. This cautious approach is driven by the recent volatility in the market, which has been influenced by geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic trends. As the market continues to navigate these challenges, investors are advised to closely monitor the impact of new U.S. tariff policies on global economies, as well as the countermeasures and responses from other countries.