Bitcoin May Rally as Copper-to-Gold Ratio and M2 Money Supply Rise

A closely followed crypto analyst has indicated that Bitcoin (BTC) may be on the brink of its next significant rally, as two key macroeconomic indicators with a history of accurately predicting bull runs are showing positive signs. In a recent macro report, the pseudonymous analyst TechDev highlighted the copper-to-gold ratio and the year-over-year change in the global M2 money supply as critical signals pointing to an impending Bitcoin surge.

The copper-to-gold ratio, often viewed as a proxy for economic risk appetite, has begun to trend upward. TechDev notes that this movement has historically preceded Bitcoin bull markets by several months. According to the analyst, as of mid-2025, the ratio has stopped declining and is stabilizing, with signs of turning higher. This suggests that investors are beginning to anticipate an economic recovery. If copper starts to outperform gold in the coming quarters, it would signal a bottoming of the business cycle, which is conducive to a Bitcoin bull run.

Additionally, the global M2 money supply, a broad measure of liquidity in the world financial system, has shifted from negative to positive annual growth. TechDev points out that this shift has historically preceded each of Bitcoin’s parabolic phases by 6 to 10 months, indicating a strong probability of another upward cycle. The analyst highlights that when global M2 is rising, Bitcoin typically follows suit. For example, in the aftermath of the 2020 COVID crisis, global M2 surged at an unprecedented rate, and Bitcoin responded by rallying from under $10,000 to over $60,000 in just over a year.

Conversely, when central banks tighten policy to combat inflation, as they did in 2022 and 2023, global M2 flattens or contracts. During this period, Bitcoin struggled, with its price declining sharply in tandem with falling liquidity. This reinforces the idea that it is not sentiment but capital flow that drives crypto price action. As liquidity dried up, so did Bitcoin’s momentum.

The analyst's observations suggest that the current macroeconomic environment, characterized by stabilizing copper-to-gold ratios and increasing global M2 money supply, may be setting the stage for Bitcoin’s next parabolic move. However, it is important to note that these indicators are based on historical patterns and do not guarantee future performance. Investors should conduct their own due diligence and consider the risks associated with high-risk investments in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.