Bitcoin's Rally to $90,000 and Ethereum's Push Past $3,100: Is This the Pre-2026 Bull Run Setup?

The cryptocurrency market is at a pivotal juncture as Bitcoin and Ethereum navigate critical technical levels in late 2025, with macroeconomic tailwinds and institutional momentum suggesting a potential setup for a 2026 bull run. This analysis examines the interplay between technical momentum and macroeconomic catalysts to assess whether the current price action in Bitcoin and Ethereum signals a prelude to a sustained upward trend.

Bitcoin: Consolidation and the $90,000 Threshold

Bitcoin has been trading within a consolidation range of $85,500 to $90,000 in December 2025, with its Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near 48-a neutral level indicating waning bearish momentum. A breakout above $90,000 could trigger a rally toward $94,253, while a pullback below $85,500 risks further downward pressure according to technical analysis. This indecision reflects broader market uncertainty, but the proximity to key resistance levels suggests that a directional move is imminent.

From a macroeconomic perspective, Bitcoin's trajectory is increasingly tied to institutional adoption and regulatory clarity. The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2025 has already drawn substantial capital from corporate treasuries and endowments, with ETF inflows absorbing over 100% of Bitcoin's annual supply increase. Analysts like Jesse Eckel argue that 2026 could see ETF inflows double, driven by anticipated rate cuts and the anticipated Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act. These factors, combined with the Bitcoin halving event in April 2024, create a historical precedent for a bull run 12–18 months post-halving.

Ethereum: A Tight Range and the 50-Day EMA

Ethereum's price action is equally telling. As of late 2025, ETH is trading near its 50-day EMA at $3,110 but remains below critical resistance levels, including the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,012. A sustained move above $3,000 could validate a bullish reversal, while a breakdown below $2,900 risks a slide toward $2,750 according to technical analysis.

The RSI for Ethereum stands at 55.344, signaling a "buy" bias, but conflicting signals from the 5-day and 200-day MAs underscore market indecision according to market data.

Ethereum's macroeconomic tailwinds are equally compelling. Institutional adoption of Ethereum ETFs and tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) is accelerating, with layer 2 scalability solutions enhancing its utility as a foundational asset. Regulatory clarity, particularly around stablecoin frameworks like the GENIUS Act, is expected to further institutionalize the market. Additionally, Ethereum's role in decentralized finance (DeFi) and AI integration is attracting fresh capital, reinforcing its case for a 2026 rally.

Macro-Driven Investment Timing

The convergence of technical and macroeconomic factors suggests that 2026 could be a breakout year for both assets. The anticipated three interest rate cuts in 2026, following three in late 2025, are likely to ease monetary policy and boost risk-on sentiment. A weakening U.S. dollar, as measured by the DXY index, historically correlates with crypto rallies, further supporting a bullish outlook.

Moreover, the structural shift toward crypto as an alternative store of value is gaining traction. Grayscale's 2026 Digital Asset Outlook highlights concerns over fiat currency debasement and rising public debt as drivers of crypto adoption. Meanwhile, stablecoins are evolving from speculative tools to foundational instruments for cross-asset transfers, enhancing liquidity and utility.

Risks and Cautionary Notes

While the technical and macroeconomic indicators are largely positive, risks remain. Bitcoin's failure to hold above $74,000 could trigger a deeper correction into 2024 levels, while Ethereum's consolidation below key EMAs suggests lingering bearish pressure. Additionally, macroeconomic headwinds-such as liquidity tightening or regulatory setbacks-could delay the bull run.

Conclusion: A Pre-2026 Bull Run Setup?

The current price action in Bitcoin and Ethereum, combined with macroeconomic tailwinds, appears to align with a pre-2026 bull run setup. A breakout above $90,000 for Bitcoin and $3,100 for Ethereum would signal renewed institutional and retail confidence, supported by ETF inflows, regulatory clarity, and rate cuts. However, investors must remain vigilant about key technical levels and macroeconomic developments. For those with a long-term horizon, the convergence of these factors suggests that 2026 could indeed mark a turning point for crypto markets.