Fase de liquidez prolongada de Bitcoin: puntos de entrada estratégicos para el próximo gran periodo de alza

Bitcoin's market dynamics in 2025 have entered a unique phase: a prolonged period of volatility compression and structural stress testing. After a 50% pullback from record highs near $125,000, the asset has consolidated within a narrow range of $106,000 to $123,000 for over four months, with volatility metrics hitting historic lows. This pattern-often a precursor to major trend reversals-has historically signaled the end of consolidation and the start of a new bull phase. For investors, understanding this liquidity phase and its implications is critical to identifying strategic entry points ahead of what could be a 2026 breakout.

Volatility Compression: A Historical Precursor to Breakouts

Bitcoin's volatility compression in late 2025 mirrors patterns observed before prior bull runs. For example, the Bollinger Band Width-a measure of price range tightness-reached its lowest weekly reading ever recorded, indicating an unusually compressed trading environment. Such compression typically reflects a market in equilibrium, where buyers and sellers are in a standoff. Historically, this phase has been followed by sharp directional moves, often driven by macroeconomic catalysts or structural shifts in liquidity.

The current compression is amplified by institutional adoption. The approval of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 rerouted capital into custodial wrappers, reducing on-chain liquidity on traditional exchanges and creating thinner order books. While this has matured the market, it has also made Bitcoin more susceptible to sudden volatility spikes during periods of imbalance. This duality-reduced volatility in normal conditions but heightened fragility during stress-creates a unique risk/reward profile for investors.

Structural Shifts: Halving, ETFs, and Stablecoin Dynamics

The 2024 Bitcoin halving event, which reduced the rate of new Bitcoin issuance by 50%, introduced a layer of scarcity that historically correlates with price increases. Combined with the influx of institutional capital via ETFs, this has created a supply-demand imbalance that could fuel the next bull phase.

Stablecoin supply has also surged to record levels, reaching $160 billion by November 2025. This increase reflects strong demand for crypto trading and DeFi activity, a trend that historically precedes Bitcoin rallies. For instance, the 2021 bull run was preceded by a similar surge in stablecoin issuance, which acted as a liquidity conduit for retail and institutional investors. Today's environment suggests a similar dynamic is unfolding, albeit with a more mature market structure.

On-Chain Metrics: Signs of a Potential Short Squeeze

On-chain data provides further clues about Bitcoin's positioning. Deleveraging in futures markets, reduced open interest, and negative funding rates indicate that short positions are becoming increasingly pessimistic. These metrics suggest a potential short squeeze scenario, where a sudden price rebound could force short sellers to cover their positions, amplifying upward momentum.

Additionally, large-scale institutional activity-such as frequent transfers exceeding $1 million at centralized services in the U.S. and India-highlights the growing role of institutional players in shaping Bitcoin's liquidity. This trend is further supported by prediction markets, where over $200 million in open interest exists for Bitcoin all-time-high date bets, reflecting speculative anticipation of a 2026 rally.

Strategic Entry Points: Navigating the Liquidity Phase

For investors, the key lies in timing entry points during this prolonged liquidity phase. While Bitcoin's price has fallen below $93,000 in November 2025, daily trading volumes have declined to $12.8 billion, signaling waning short-term engagement. Analysts are closely monitoring this level as a potential turning point. If Bitcoin reclaims $93,000, it could trigger a technical rebound, especially if macroeconomic conditions (e.g., Fed policy shifts) align with bullish sentiment.

Longer-term, the volatility compression suggests a potential breakout in late Q1 2026. Historical patterns indicate that such low-volatility phases can extend for months before a directional move, with price targets potentially reaching $170,000 to $180,000 if the next expansion mirrors prior cycles. Investors should also monitor stablecoin flows and institutional on-chain activity for early signs of liquidity accumulation.

Conclusion: A Market in Transition

Bitcoin's prolonged liquidity phase is a complex interplay of volatility compression, structural shifts, and macroeconomic catalysts. While the current consolidation period may test patience, it represents a critical juncture for investors. By analyzing on-chain metrics, stablecoin dynamics, and historical volatility patterns, strategic entry points can be identified ahead of what could be a defining bull run in 2026. As always, the key is to balance caution with conviction-leveraging the market's structural weaknesses to position for its inevitable next phase.