Bitcoin's Price Surges 90-Day Tariff Pause, Reflects 80% Correlation With S&P 500

Bitcoin has shown a significant correlation with the stock market, reflecting broader economic trends and investor sentiment. This relationship has become particularly pronounced amid economic uncertainty, with the correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 currently standing at approximately 0.8, according to CryptoQuant. This dynamic underscores the robust link between these two asset classes, as Bitcoin’s performance has mirrored the movements of the S&P 500, which has experienced fluctuations due to macroeconomic factors, such as the recent introduction of global tariffs.

The correlation with the Nasdaq composite has remained equally strong, reflecting investor sentiment within technology sectors and further illustrating Bitcoin’s risk-sensitive nature. This strong correlation is particularly crucial during periods of market stress, such as recent events triggered by global tariffs and subsequent market speculation on potential policy changes, which have caused notable price moves across both Bitcoin and the stock market.

The introduction of tariffs and ongoing discussions around economic strategies have led to significant volatility in the stock markets, which, in turn, has influenced Bitcoin’s price. Following recent speculation regarding a 90-day pause on tariffs, Bitcoin surged, reflecting the heightened sensitivity to news that impacts investor confidence. Examining the trends in March and April of 2025, it is evident that Bitcoin, alongside the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, has displayed synchronized price movements that highlight a prevalent risk-off sentiment among investors.

As the correlation between Bitcoin and stock markets remains significant, crypto investors must keep a close watch on traditional market movements. Increased risks in the stock market will likely lead to heightened volatility in Bitcoin as well, reinforcing the notion that Bitcoin is presently viewed as a risk asset. Should there be a macroeconomic recovery, we could see Bitcoin prices rally towards previous highs, potentially approaching around $82,500. Conversely, persistent volatility could prompt Bitcoin to fluctuate around a support level of $74,000, reflecting ongoing investor caution.

In conclusion, Bitcoin’s volatility and correlation with stock markets illustrate the interconnected nature of contemporary financial markets. Investors should remain vigilant as macroeconomic indicators signal potential directionality for both traditional assets and cryptocurrencies. While uncertainties loom, the prospects for Bitcoin largely depend on the stability of larger economic systems.