El precio del Bitcoin sigue estando por debajo de la media móvil de 50 semanas. ¿Qué significa esto?

Bitcoin traded at $90,605 as of January 11, 2026, attempting a modest 0.24% rebound following five consecutive days of declines. The price remained below its 50-week moving average for the first time since October 2023, signaling a potential shift in market sentiment. This development raises concerns about a deeper correction as the asset continues to consolidate in a prolonged pattern.

The breakdown below the 50-week moving average is significant as it historically precedes major pullbacks. Analysts have noted similar patterns in past cycles, where extended periods below this threshold led to corrections ranging between 50% and 70%. If history repeats itself, Bitcoin could face a pullback of at least 50%, potentially bringing the price down to $50,000.

Bitcoin's performance has also shown signs of on-chain weakness. Transfer volume has dropped since early 2023, suggesting reduced activity from retail investors. This decline is evident in metrics such as smaller transfers and transaction counts, indicating less participation at the base layer. The subdued on-chain activity highlights a bearish trend despite recent price gains.

Bitcoin's price is currently forming a bear flag pattern on the daily chart, a continuation pattern that often signals further downward movement. This consolidation, which has lasted for seven weeks, has been constrained between converging trendlines, reflecting a lack of momentum from both buyers and sellers. If the price breaks below the lower boundary, it could accelerate the correction toward $81,000.

The broader macroeconomic environment adds to the bearish outlook. Despite the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, monetary conditions remain restrictive for risk assets. The strengthening U.S. dollar and stretched valuations in equity markets create headwinds for Bitcoin, which is highly correlated with risk-on sentiment. Institutional forecasts, meanwhile, have become more cautious, with some predicting a price target of $150,000 in 2026.

Bitcoin's price has also fallen short of its 200-week exponential moving average (EMA), a critical long-term support level. The last time Bitcoin tested this level was nearly three years ago, and it marked the beginning of a rally from $23,000 to $126,198. The failure to revisit this level has led to growing speculation that a similar correction may be necessary to reset market sentiment.

Key price targets have emerged based on technical analysis and expert commentary. The primary support level is around $74,000, which corresponds to the April 2025 lows. A further decline could test the $68,000 zone, which coincides with the 200-week EMA and July 2024 highs. This area represents a high-probability zone for trend reversal after a significant capitulation phase.

Prominent crypto influencers have echoed similar bearish sentiments. James Wynn, for example, has predicted a test of $67,000 as the next major support level. Brannigan Barrett also expects Bitcoin to test $68,000, citing the 2024 election breakout as a key technical reference. These views suggest that further consolidation and breakdown may be imminent.

Investors are now closely watching key price levels as potential triggers for market action. The 50-week moving average serves as an immediate threshold, with a break below it likely to intensify bearish sentiment. The 200-day EMA, currently at $106,421, remains significantly above the current price, reinforcing the bearish outlook.

Bitcoin's long-term prospects remain tied to its ability to reclaim critical moving averages and re-establish a bullish structure. While short-term volatility is expected, the broader trend will depend on how the price interacts with these levels in the coming weeks.

Why Did This Happen?

Bitcoin's recent price action reflects a combination of technical and macroeconomic factors. The breakdown below the 50-week moving average is a key signal, historically associated with significant corrections. The extended period of consolidation suggests weakening momentum and increased risk of further declines.

In addition to technical indicators, broader macroeconomic conditions continue to influence the market. The U.S. dollar's strength and the ongoing tightening of monetary policy create a challenging environment for risk assets like Bitcoin. The correlation with equity markets also plays a role, as stretched valuations and concerns about AI investment sustainability weigh on investor sentiment.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Analysts are focusing on several key levels as potential turning points. The $74,000 and $68,000 zones represent primary and extended support targets, respectively. A test of these levels could trigger a deeper correction, with the $68,000 zone serving as a critical area for trend reversal.

On-chain activity remains a key area of interest. The subdued volume and reduced transaction counts suggest weak participation from retail investors. If this trend continues, it could indicate a prolonged bearish phase, with further price weakness expected.

Derivatives data also provides insight into market positioning. The long/short ratio remains skewed toward long positions, indicating continued bullish sentiment despite recent price declines. However, this imbalance creates potential squeeze risk if the price breaks down and triggers leveraged positions.

How Did Markets React?

Bitcoin's price decline has led to cautious engagement from market participants. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has returned to neutral, indicating a balanced sentiment. Institutional ETFs have shown mixed flows, with large single-day inflows followed by outflows, suggesting active trading rather than long-term accumulation.

Derivatives funding rates remain low, indicating that leveraged longs are not dominating the market. This suggests that the bearish pressure is not driven by aggressive shorting but rather by broader market conditions and technical breakdowns.

Bitcoin's price remains in a delicate phase, with key levels and macroeconomic factors shaping the near-term outlook. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether the price can stabilize or if further downward momentum will take hold.