Bitcoin's Pre-FOMC Resilience and Bullish Technical Setup: Strategic Entry Timing Ahead of Macro-Driven Breakouts

Bitcoin's price action in the lead-up to Federal Reserve (FOMC) events in 2025 has demonstrated a unique blend of macroeconomic resilience and technical strength. As the market anticipates the October 29 FOMC decision, Bitcoin's ability to hold above critical support levels and attract institutional inflows underscores its role as a macro-sensitive asset. This analysis explores how traders can leverage Bitcoin's bullish technical setup and pre-FOMC behavior to identify high-probability entry points ahead of potential breakouts.

Macro-Driven Resilience: Institutional Confidence and Policy Tailwinds

Bitcoin's recent performance has been buoyed by a confluence of macroeconomic and institutional factors. As of October 24, 2025, Bitcoin traded at $114,970, up 1.30% in 24 hours, reflecting renewed institutional demand and a softer-than-expected U.S. CPI report, according to Finbold. Strategy's latest acquisition of 390 BTC-bringing its total holdings to 640,808 BTC-signals robust corporate confidence in Bitcoin as a treasury asset, per Bitcoin Magazine. Meanwhile, a U.S.-China trade truce has paused new tariffs, further easing risk-off sentiment and supporting Bitcoin's short-term trajectory, Finbold noted.

The Federal Reserve's policy direction remains a critical variable. With the CME FedWatch tool indicating a 96% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut on October 29, Bitcoin's price is poised to react to dovish signals, according to a Binance analysis. Historical patterns suggest that Bitcoin often consolidates ahead of FOMC decisions, with traders trimming exposure as markets "derisk" ahead of policy announcements, the same Binance analysis noted. However, the current environment-marked by ETF inflows and reduced interest rates-creates a fertile ground for post-FOMC rallies.

Bullish Technical Setup: RSI, Bollinger Bands, and MACD Signals

Bitcoin's technical indicators paint a compelling case for a near-term breakout. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has approached overbought territory, while Bollinger Bands highlight Bitcoin's proximity to the upper band, suggesting heightened volatility and a potential move toward the $100,000 resistance level. The 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $103,200 remains a key support level, with Bitcoin trading above it since August 2025, as reported by Bitcoin Magazine.

The MACD indicator has also shown promising momentum. A golden cross-a bullish signal where the short-term EMA crosses above the long-term EMA-emerged in late 2025, historically preceding sharp upward moves, according to Brave New Coin. For instance, the April 2025 golden cross led to a 40% price surge in one month, pushing Bitcoin to an all-time high of $124,349.51, as noted by The Currency Analytics. Current MACD patterns suggest a similar trajectory if Bitcoin clears $114,000, with the histogram expanding to confirm bullish momentum, Brave New Coin observed.

Strategic Entry Timing: Pullbacks and Breakout Confirmation

For traders seeking entry points, Bitcoin's price fluctuations between $110,000 and $117,000 present opportunities. Periodic pullbacks to the $110,000–$112,000 range could offer low-risk entries, especially if the MACD histogram expands and the price retests the 200-day SMA, as earlier reporting noted. A decisive close above $116,000 would confirm a breakout toward $120,000–$125,000, aligning with institutional forecasts from Standard Chartered and VanEck, according to a Yellow research note.

However, caution is warranted. The recent "ghosting" of Bitcoin treasuries by DATs-despite aggressive accumulation by firms like American Bitcoin and Strategy-highlights market fragmentation, as reported by CryptoNews. Traders should monitor ETF inflows (e.g., BlackRock's IBIT) and Fed Chair Powell's comments for real-time catalysts, per InvestingHaven. A breakdown below $107,500 would invalidate the bullish case, triggering a retest of the $103,200 support level, according to Yahoo Finance.

Conclusion: Positioning for a Macro-Driven Breakout

Bitcoin's pre-FOMC resilience in 2025 is underpinned by institutional adoption, favorable macroeconomic conditions, and a robust technical setup. While volatility and regulatory risks persist, the convergence of bullish indicators and policy tailwinds creates a compelling case for strategic entries ahead of the October 29 FOMC decision. Traders who combine MACD crossovers, RSI divergence, and ETF flow analysis with disciplined risk management may position themselves to capitalize on Bitcoin's next leg higher.