Bitcoin's Post-Halving Momentum: A Technical and Sentiment-Driven Bull Case

Bitcoin's 2024 halving event, which reduced block rewards from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC, marked a pivotal moment in the cryptocurrency's history. While the immediate post-halving price surge was more subdued compared to previous cycles-rising 31% to $83,671 by May 2025, according to a post-halving analysis-the technical and sentiment landscape has since evolved into a compelling bullish narrative. Let's dissect the data to understand why Bitcoin's momentum remains robust heading into Q4 2025.

Technical Analysis: A Golden Cross and Resilient Momentum

The 2024 halving triggered a classic "golden cross" on May 15, 2024, as the 50-day moving average (SMA) crossed above the 200-day SMA, as noted in that analysis. This technical signal, historically associated with long-term bullish trends, was further reinforced by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which remained above 70 for much of the April–December 2024 period, indicating strong buying pressure, according to the same analysis.

By September 2025, Bitcoin's RSI had normalized to 50.05, signaling neutral momentum, according to a Mudrex technical analysis, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed a bullish bias of 692.10. Mudrex also observed that short-term moving averages (10-day and 20-day SMA) displayed mixed signals, but medium- and long-term indicators-particularly the 50-day and 200-day SMA-remained in a "buy zone," underscoring an ongoing bullish trend.

A critical technical benchmark is the 50-week SMA, which acts as a psychological support level. As of September 2025, Bitcoin traded above this level at $98,900, per Coindesk, a threshold that has historically prevented prolonged bearish corrections. Additionally, historical seasonality paints a bullish picture: Q4 has averaged 85% returns for Bitcoin since 2013, with November being the strongest month (46% average gain), according to Coindesk.

Sentiment and Institutional Demand: A New Era of Adoption

Bitcoin's post-halving resilience is not just technical-it's also driven by shifting sentiment and institutional adoption. The Fear & Greed Index, a gauge of market psychology, stood at 43 in September 2025, signaling cautious optimism, according to a Finance Magnates piece. This aligns with Bitcoin's recovery from oversold RSI conditions into neutral territory, as noted in that Finance Magnates piece, suggesting a market that's neither euphoric nor fearful.

Institutional demand has been a game-changer. US spot Bitcoin ETFs, approved in 2024, have attracted $54.4 billion in net inflows and accumulated 1.29 million BTC-nearly 6% of the total supply, the Finance Magnates coverage reports. Meanwhile, corporate adoption has surged, with 102 publicly listed firms holding 1,001,953 BTC as of August 2025, per the same report. Strategy Inc.'s 632,457 BTC holdings alone represent 63% of this corporate treasury, signaling growing confidence in Bitcoin as a store of value.

Bitcoin's market dominance has also reached an eight-year high of 72.4% (excluding stablecoins) as of May 2025, according to a PricePredictions forecast, reflecting its outperformance over altcoins. This dominance is supported by a hash rate exceeding 1 zetta hash per second in April 2025, demonstrating continued miner investment despite reduced block rewards.

Price Projections and the Road Ahead

Looking ahead, technical and sentiment indicators suggest a bullish trajectory for Bitcoin in October–December 2025. Price predictions range from $383,363 to $465,425, according to the PricePredictions forecast, a range that aligns with historical seasonality and the maturation of Bitcoin as an asset class. The key risks include macroeconomic volatility and regulatory shifts, but the current technical setup-combined with institutional tailwinds-points to a high probability of breaking previous all-time highs by year-end, the Finance Magnates coverage argues.

Conclusion: A Bull Case Built on Data

Bitcoin's post-halving momentum may have been more measured than in prior cycles, but the technical and sentiment fundamentals are stronger than ever. A golden cross, resilient RSI, and institutional adoption have created a foundation for sustained growth. With Q4 historically favoring Bitcoin and the 50-week SMA acting as a critical support, investors should remain bullish. As the year closes, the focus will shift to whether Bitcoin can capitalize on its technical setup and institutional tailwinds to cement its place as a mainstream asset.```