Bitcoin's Post-FOMC Price Trajectory: LTH Profit Realizations and Critical Support Levels in Focus

Bitcoin's price trajectory post-FOMC has become increasingly intertwined with the behavior of long-term holders (LTHs) and the fragility of institutional demand. Recent on-chain data reveals that LTHs have realized profits on 3.4 million BTC since the 2025 FOMC decision, signaling a strategic shift toward distribution amid slowing ETF inflows Bitcoin (BTC) On-Chain Alert: 3.4M BTC LTH Profit-Taking, ETF Inflows Slow; $111K STH Cost Basis Is Critical Support Post-FOMC^[2]. This dynamic underscores a maturing market structure, where LTHs—holders of Bitcoin for 155 days or more—are leveraging post-FOMC volatility to crystallize gains, while institutional flows struggle to absorb the resulting supply pressure Bitcoin Long Term Holder Realized Price Chart | Newhedge^[3].

On-Chain Behavior: Profit Realizations and Market Maturity

The LTH/STH SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) has surged to a multi-year high, indicating that long-term holders are now dominating profit-taking over short-term speculators Bitcoin LTH Profitability Outpaces STHs: BTC Targets $120k^[4]. Historically, this metric has preceded bull markets, as seen in 2024 when LTHs capitalized on $70K price peaks. However, the current environment differs in one critical aspect: the absence of robust ETF inflows to offset selling pressure. According to a report by Glassnode, ETF inflows have plateaued since August 2025, reducing a key pillar of demand and creating a precarious equilibrium Bitcoin (BTC) On-Chain Alert: 3.4M BTC LTH Profit-Taking, ETF Inflows Slow; $111K STH Cost Basis Is Critical Support Post-FOMC^[2].

The LTH Realized Price—a metric tracking the average purchase price of coins held for 155+ days—now sits at $111.8K, forming a critical support level Bitcoin Long Term Holder Realized Price Chart | Newhedge^[3]. This threshold represents not just a technical barrier but a psychological battleground. If Bitcoin fails to hold above this level, it risks triggering cascading liquidations and exposing further downside, as short-term holders (STHs) face margin calls Bitcoin (BTC) On-Chain Alert: 3.4M BTC LTH Profit-Taking, ETF Inflows Slow; $111K STH Cost Basis Is Critical Support Post-FOMC^[2].

Capital Flow Dynamics: ETFs and Institutional Demand

The slowdown in ETF inflows has amplified concerns about Bitcoin's ability to sustain its current price. Data from Blockchain.news shows that spot ETFs experienced a $326 million outflow in a single day in late August 2025, coinciding with a 13% price drop following a large whale transfer Bitcoin’s Bull Cycle Enters Late Phase: Profit Taking Heightens, Demand Flickers – What Comes Next?^[5]. This highlights the fragility of institutional demand, which has historically acted as a stabilizing force during LTH distribution phases.

Meanwhile, futures open interest has declined sharply post-FOMC, reflecting reduced leverage and cautious consolidation among traders Bitcoin (BTC) On-Chain Alert: 3.4M BTC LTH Profit-Taking, ETF Inflows Slow; $111K STH Cost Basis Is Critical Support Post-FOMC^[2]. This divergence between on-chain profit-taking and derivatives activity suggests a market in transition, where speculative fervor is giving way to strategic exits by LTHs.

Historical Patterns and the $111K Threshold

Historically, Bitcoin has exhibited a mixed but generally bullish response to FOMC decisions. For instance, the 0.5% rate cut in September 2024 marked the bottom of a bear market and triggered a 100% price increase Bitcoin Long Term Holder Realized Price Chart | Newhedge^[3]. However, the current cycle differs in its late-stage dynamics. The prolonged period of supply in profit—where over 80% of Bitcoin's circulating supply is above cost basis—has led to heightened profit realizations, mirroring patterns observed during the 2024 peak Bitcoin’s Bull Cycle Enters Late Phase: Profit Taking Heightens, Demand Flickers – What Comes Next?^[5].

The $111K support level is particularly significant given its alignment with the STH cost basis. Analysts at FXLeaders note that sustained trading above this level could pave the way for a push toward $120K, driven by LTH profitability dominance Bitcoin LTH Profitability Outpaces STHs: BTC Targets $120k^[4]. Conversely, a breakdown below $111K could expose Bitcoin to a 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the 2022–2025 bull market, currently around $108K Bitcoin’s Bull Cycle Enters Late Phase: Profit Taking Heightens, Demand Flickers – What Comes Next?^[5].

Institutional Demand and Macro Risks

Despite these risks, institutional demand remains a stabilizing factor. Companies like MicroStrategy continue to accumulate Bitcoin, holding 638,985 BTC valued at over $73 billion Bitcoin Eyes $113K Support as Critical Test Looms Ahead of FOMC Decision^[1]. This level of demand provides a floor for Bitcoin's price, but it is not immune to macroeconomic headwinds. Trade tensions and geopolitical risks have already contributed to bearish sentiment, with traders anticipating a 91% probability of a 0.25% rate cut in the upcoming FOMC meeting Bitcoin LTH Profitability Outpaces STHs: BTC Targets $120k^[4].

Conclusion: A Delicate Balance

Bitcoin's post-FOMC trajectory hinges on the interplay between LTH profit realizations, ETF inflows, and institutional demand. While the $111K support level offers a critical psychological barrier, the market's reliance on institutional absorption of LTH selling introduces volatility risks. Investors must monitor both on-chain metrics—such as SOPR and UTXO Realized Price Distribution—and macroeconomic signals to gauge the likelihood of a sustained rally or a deeper correction.

As the market approaches a potential inflection point, the coming weeks will test whether Bitcoin can transition from a late-cycle distribution phase to a new accumulation cycle—or face a bearish reset.