Bitcoin Plummets 13% to Five-Month Low, Analyst Predicts Further 48% Drop

Bitcoin's price has experienced a notable decline, reaching a five-month low of approximately $74,000 on April 7. This significant drop has led many investors to question whether Bitcoin has reached its lowest point. CMT-certified technical analyst Tony Severino, however, believes that Bitcoin has not yet hit its bottom. According to Severino's analysis, Bitcoin is expected to fall further to a range between $38,000 and $42,000.

Bitcoin's recent price movement has been volatile, with its value dropping to $74,000. Market participants are divided on whether this represents the lowest point for Bitcoin. Severino, using technical analysis and the Elliott Wave Theory, predicts that Bitcoin will continue to decline to the $38,000 to $42,000 range before the end of this period. This forecast is based on a detailed analysis of Bitcoin's price history and market movements.

Severino's analysis suggests that the significant decrease in Bitcoin's value is not a cause for panic, as it aligns with typical market cycles. The digital asset market is known for its volatility and regular price adjustments. The current price activity may represent a short-term phase that could lead to a market recovery.

Severino employs the Elliott Wave Theory to analyze market movements, interpreting them as distinct wave patterns. During an impulsive trend, the price of an asset follows a system of five predictable wave patterns, and during a corrective market phase, it completes three wave movements. The Bitcoin market currently demonstrates standard wave patterns, with its movement belonging to the corrective segment. Bitcoin reached its all-time high at $85,000, but various signs soon emerged indicating a market decline. Severino understands that the cryptocurrency is currently within a corrective phase that includes three waves: starting with Wave A and then Wave B before finishing with Wave C.

Severino's chart data indicates that Bitcoin has completed nearly 100% of its downward Wave A. The second flux (Wave B) is expected to push the Bitcoin price to around $62,000 to $65,000, while Wave C will drive prices to $38,000 to $42,000. This prediction area matches historical major Bitcoin bear markets from 2017, providing logical support for the forecast.

Severino's analysis suggests that the current Bitcoin bear market may continue due to the formation of the Death Cross pattern. This pattern indicates additional negative market movements are likely. Bitcoin is expected to undergo further price declines until it reaches strong foundation levels, provided current patterns continue. According to Severino’s analysis, the price is projected to sink into the $38,000 to $42,000 range over the upcoming few months, which may extend into mid-2026.

Despite the anxiety caused by these price fluctuations, Severino notes that they are part of Bitcoin's regular market cycle. Following its anticipated price dip, Bitcoin is expected to begin a fresh growth cycle, as the next halving event is scheduled for mid-2026. Market predictions about Bitcoin’s future remain uncertain following its recent price slippage to $74,000. It is premature to assume this value defines its all-time lowest valuation. Severino predicts that Bitcoin will move toward the $38,000 to $42,000 range before completing its normal price cycle. The forecast indicates market uncertainty, but Bitcoin is expected to demonstrate solid long-term expansion opportunities through the 2026 halving event.