Bitcoin's Path to a Breakout: Macro Catalysts and Pal's 35-Day Outlook

The global macroeconomic landscape in late 2025 remains a tug-of-war between inflationary pressures and the cautious easing of central banks. For Bitcoin, this environment presents both headwinds and tailwinds, depending on how policymakers navigate the delicate balance between growth and price stability. With Raoul Pal's recent price projections and the lingering effects of the Bitcoin halving, the stage is set for a critical inflection point.

Central Banks: A Tale of Two Policies

The U.S. Federal Reserve continues to anchor its policy in a "mildly restrictive" stance, as emphasized by President Susan Collins of the Boston Fed. Despite a softening labor market and persistent inflation, the Fed has shown reluctance to cut interest rates, prioritizing long-term price stability over short-term economic risks. This approach reflects a broader debate among policymakers about whether current rates are sufficient to achieve a "neutral" stance. For Bitcoin, higher interest rates traditionally dampen demand for non-yielding assets, but the Fed's hesitation could delay a pivot that might otherwise fuel risk-on sentiment.

Meanwhile, Egypt's decision to maintain its 12.5% inflation-fighting interest rates highlights the global diversity in monetary policy responses. While the U.S. grapples with structural inflation, emerging markets face acute supply-side shocks, such as rising housing costs. This divergence underscores the complexity of a global economy where Bitcoin's appeal as a hedge against localized instability could grow.

Raoul Pal's 35-Day Forecast: A Glimpse of Optimism

Despite the macroeconomic headwinds, Raoul Pal's Bitcoin price prediction for November 2025 offers a compelling counter-narrative. According to a report by Cryptopolitan, Pal anticipates a price range of $105,000 to $118,000, with an average of $111,000 if downward pressures remain minimal. This forecast hinges on two key factors: institutional adoption and the halving event's lingering effects.

Institutional adoption has been a quiet but powerful driver in 2025, with major asset managers and corporations increasingly allocating Bitcoin to their portfolios. Meanwhile, the halving event-though occurring in 2024-continues to influence market psychology. Reduced block rewards for miners have tightened Bitcoin's supply dynamics, creating a narrative of scarcity that could justify higher valuations.

However, Pal's optimism must be tempered by reality. As noted in a recent GlobeNewswire report, Bitcoin's performance in 2025 has been volatile, with the asset erasing all its annual gains amid broader market stress. This volatility highlights the risks of relying on macroeconomic catalysts alone. A Fed pivot or a surge in institutional demand could propel Bitcoin higher, but a misstep in either area could trigger a sharp correction.

The 35-Day Window: A Crucible for Bitcoin

While Pal's 35-day forecast isn't explicitly detailed in available sources, the broader November 2025 prediction provides a framework for analysis. A 35-day window is critical for testing Bitcoin's resilience to macroeconomic shifts. If the Fed signals a rate-cutting cycle in December 2025, Bitcoin could see a short-term rally as capital flows into risk assets. Conversely, a delay in easing could exacerbate downward pressure, particularly if inflation surprises to the upside.

The Egyptian example also offers a microcosm of this dynamic. If other central banks follow suit in maintaining high rates, Bitcoin's role as an inflation hedge could gain traction in regions with weaker fiat currencies. However, a global easing cycle would likely diminish this appeal, redirecting capital toward traditional safe havens like U.S. Treasuries.

Conclusion: Balancing Risks and Opportunities

Bitcoin's path to a breakout in late 2025 depends on a delicate interplay of macroeconomic signals and market sentiment. The Fed's cautious stance and Egypt's inflation-fighting measures illustrate the global complexity of monetary policy, while Raoul Pal's forecast underscores the potential for a rebound driven by institutional adoption and supply-side fundamentals.

For investors, the 35-day window ahead represents a pivotal test. A Fed pivot could unlock a new phase of Bitcoin's journey, but the asset's inherent volatility means that patience and risk management remain paramount. As always, the key lies in aligning macroeconomic trends with Bitcoin's unique value proposition-a digital asset that thrives on scarcity, decentralization, and the relentless pursuit of financial innovation.