El camino del Bitcoin hacia los $100.000: dinámica de liquidez y cambios de sentimiento en el comienzo de 2026

Bitcoin's journey to $100,000 in early 2026 hinges on a delicate interplay of liquidity dynamics and market sentiment. After a brutal Q4 2025 correction-where Bitcoin fell from an all-time high of $126,000 to $80,000-investors are now scrutinizing whether the asset can rekindle its bullish momentum. This analysis dissects the on-chain, macroeconomic, and institutional forces shaping Bitcoin's trajectory, with a focus on the critical inflection points that could catalyze a short-term rally.

Liquidity Deterioration and Structural Weaknesses

Bitcoin's liquidity landscape in late 2025 was marked by alarming trends. Realized cap values collapsed by 88% to $4.7 billion, signaling a near-complete drying up of new money. Long-term holders sold nearly 1.2 million BTC over two months, reducing their market share from 77% to 71%. Meanwhile, short-term holders faced mounting losses, with their average cost basis at $103,500 versus a spot price 10% lower.

Exchange reserves, while hitting all-time highs at $80 billion in November 2025, failed to stabilize prices, underscoring a lack of investor conviction. Market depth dropped 25% across the top 30 exchanges, exacerbating volatility and making Bitcoin increasingly susceptible to sharp swings. These structural weaknesses created a fragile equilibrium, with the price oscillating between $81,000 and $91,000 as on-chain activity stagnated.

Sentiment at a Critical Juncture

Social sentiment reached a nadir in late 2025, with a social sentiment ratio of 3.03-the lowest since December 2023-reflecting widespread fear and panic. Platforms like X, Reddit, and Telegram buzzed with concerns about Bitcoin's future, yet the price remained stubbornly above $91,000. Historically, such extreme bearish sentiment has preceded significant rallies, as seen in late 2023 when Bitcoin surged post-sell-off.

The Fear & Greed Index confirmed bearishness, with scores hovering around 32 in the "extreme fear" zone. This level of fear often acts as a contrarian signal, particularly when fundamentals remain intact. Institutional buyers stepped in to absorb retail sell-offs, creating a supply shock that could drive prices higher. BlackRock and MicroStrategy's aggressive accumulation in late 2025 further signaled long-term confidence.

Macro and Institutional Catalysts for 2026

Bitcoin's valuation framework has evolved from a halving-driven narrative to one dominated by macroeconomic factors and institutional adoption. The 2025 halving failed to trigger a traditional bull market, but it did tighten supply, with exchange reserves at their lowest since 2018 and a growing portion of Bitcoin locked in ETFs and corporate treasuries. Analysts project institutional demand in 2026 could outpace mining supply by a factor of 5x, creating a structural liquidity deficit that may push prices beyond $150,000.

Regulatory clarity has also accelerated institutional adoption. The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the anticipated passage of U.S. crypto market structure legislation in 2026 are expected to deepen Bitcoin's integration into traditional finance. Grayscale's 2026 outlook highlights that 68% of institutional investors are either invested in or planning to invest in Bitcoin ETPs, treating the asset as a hedge against inflation and fiat risk.

Key Catalysts for a $100K Rally

Three factors could drive Bitcoin toward $100,000 in early 2026:

1. ETF Inflows and Institutional Buying:
   Citigroup estimates that Bitcoin would need $1 billion in weekly ETF inflows to push the price up 4%. While January-February 2026 saw $1.2 billion in net outflows, a reversal in this trend-driven by renewed institutional demand-could create a floor above $91,000. If Bitcoin reclaims the $92,000–$93,000 range, it could trigger a technical breakout toward $100,000.

2. Macroeconomic Tailwinds:
   As central banks near the end of their tightening cycles, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin is expected to fall. A weaker U.S. dollar (DXY index) could also boost demand, as investors seek alternatives to fiat currencies according to analysis.

3. Sentiment Reversal and Supply Constraints:
   The post-halving supply crunch-combined with a maturing institutional market-creates a scenario where even modest demand increases could drive significant price appreciation. Historical patterns suggest that when demand exceeds supply by a similar margin to 2020–2021, prices can rise by over 600%.

Risks and Cautionary Notes

While the case for a $100K rally is compelling, risks remain. ETF outflows, macroeconomic volatility, and regulatory shifts could derail the trajectory. Additionally, Bitcoin's position below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages as of late 2025 indicates a bearish bias unless it reclaims the $110K–$113K resistance zone.

Conclusion

Bitcoin's path to $100,000 in early 2026 is far from guaranteed, but the confluence of deteriorating liquidity, extreme bearish sentiment, and structural institutional demand creates a compelling case for a short-term rally. If ETF inflows resume, macroeconomic conditions improve, and sentiment reverses, Bitcoin could retest its 2025 highs-and potentially surpass them. However, investors must remain vigilant to the risks of a prolonged bear market if these catalysts fail to materialize.