Bitcoin Outperforms Equities Amid 19% Tariff Surge, 2.4% Gain in 24 Hours

Bitcoin (BTC) has demonstrated remarkable resilience amidst a tumultuous macroeconomic landscape, marked by aggressive US tariffs that have shaken global markets and driven risk assets into retreat. Despite a 19.1% pullback from its January highs, Bitcoin has outperformed most major altcoins and equities, even experiencing brief rebounds on days when traditional markets declined.

As of the latest data, Bitcoin was trading at $79,850, reflecting a 2.4% increase over the past 24 hours. This performance suggests that long-term holders continue to accumulate BTC, indicating Bitcoin's potential to reassert its role as a safe-haven asset during economic uncertainty. The report highlights that Bitcoin's behavior in recent weeks shows a shift: while it remains sensitive to macroeconomic shocks, it is beginning to decouple from broader risk assets during peak stress periods.

This divergence is occurring as the US implements a global tariff spiral not seen since the 1930s. President Donald Trump, returning to office in January, enacted sweeping import tariffs on April 5. The move included a 10% blanket levy on nearly every country, along with steep country-specific rates, such as 54% on China, 20% on the EU, and 46% on Vietnam. China and Canada have already retaliated, and further global responses are anticipated. Meanwhile, more than 50 countries have agreed to concessions.

While the overall crypto market has lost over $1 trillion in value, a 25.9% drop, Bitcoin has been less volatile than high-beta sectors such as memecoins and AI-linked tokens, which fell more than 50%. Ethereum (ETH), often more sensitive to risk-off moves, is down over 40%. Data shows Bitcoin’s 30-day correlation with equities rose from –0.32 in February to 0.47 in March, reflecting its alignment with broader market sentiment during the tariff escalation. However, its previously neutral correlation with gold dropped to –0.22, suggesting that Bitcoin may be positioning itself differently than traditional risk or safe-haven assets.

Importantly, long-term supply metrics remain strong. Bitcoin held by long-term investors continues to rise, suggesting conviction among holders even as volatility spikes. Some analysts view this as a signal that BTC could regain its footing faster than other digital assets once macro conditions stabilize. The macro backdrop is increasingly complex. The average US tariff rate now stands at nearly 19%, up from just 2.5% last year, the sharpest rise since the Great Depression. Inflation expectations are climbing, with consumer surveys showing a rise toward 5%, even as global growth projections weaken. This has created a stagflationary threat that complicates central bank responses. The Federal Reserve, once focused squarely on cooling inflation, is now expected to cut interest rates up to four times this year, based on the Fed funding futures market. Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned that recent tariffs are “larger than expected” and could undermine both price stability and growth.

Whether Bitcoin continues to outperform in this environment may hinge on two factors: monetary policy and narrative momentum. Should the Fed pivot to easing while inflation remains elevated, BTC could benefit from renewed liquidity and its positioning as a non-sovereign, “hard money” alternative. Bitcoin’s long-term correlation with equities remains modest, averaging 0.32 since 2020, and with gold just 0.12. Past periods, like the March 2023 banking crisis, showed BTC’s capacity to decouple and rally amid broader instability. If markets stabilize and Bitcoin reclaims its role as an inflation hedge, it may attract fresh flows as traditional portfolios seek diversification. For now, crypto remains tethered to macro headlines — with tariffs, inflation prints, and central bank signals driving sentiment. However, Bitcoin’s relative strength through the storm may offer a glimpse of the role it could play in a fractured, protectionist global economy.