Bitcoin Outperforms S&P 500, Gold in 60-Day Recovery from Major Disruptions

Bitcoin has demonstrated a remarkable ability to recover and outperform other assets following major global disruptions since 2020. The top digital asset has posted an average 37% return over a 60-day period across several high-volatility events, significantly outperforming both the S&P 500 and gold. The S&P 500, a widely used equity gauge, saw an average return of 3.5% over the same period, while gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, returned 6.2%.

One notable example is the U.S.–Iran escalation in January 2020. During the 60 days following this event, Bitcoin rose by 20%, while the S&P 500 fell by 7% and gold gained 6%. Similarly, after the COVID-19 outbreak was declared in March 2020, Bitcoin climbed 21% over 60 days, reversing a steep initial 25% drop over the first 10 days. In contrast, the S&P 500 and gold recorded gains of 2% and 3%, respectively, over the same period.

Another significant event was the U.S. election challenges in November 2020. Following this period of heightened uncertainty, Bitcoin surged by 131% over 60 days. This compared to a 12% rise in the S&P 500 and a 1% decline in gold. The period included heightened uncertainty around the electoral process and stimulus negotiations. After Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Bitcoin returned 15% over 60 days. Gold outperformed equities, gaining 9% versus the S&P 500’s 3% uptick. Bitcoin initially fell 6% in the first 10 days before recovering.

The March 2023 U.S. regional banking crisis also saw a sharp move in Bitcoin, which gained 32% in 60 days. Gold rose 11%, while the S&P 500 climbed 4%. This period included liquidity concerns and institutional fallout. In contrast, Bitcoin’s response to Japan’s Yen carry trade unwinding in August 2024 was muted, rising just 3% in 60 days. Gold gained 9%, and the S&P 500 added 7%.

Thus, data shows Bitcoin repeatedly recovering faster and outperforming other assets across major market dislocations, particularly within a two-month window. The 60-day mark for tariffs announced on “Liberation Day” arrives Jun. 1; Bitcoin is flat over the first 15 days, with the S&P 500 down 5.72% and gold up 6.8%. After 60 days, Bitcoin has only underperformed gold once in 2024 during the Yen carry trade unwinding.