Vencimiento de opciones de Bitcoin y sus implicaciones en la volatilidad de precios al final del año

As the calendar flips to December 2025, Bitcoin investors face a pivotal moment: a $23.8 billion options expiry on December 26, with over $55.76 billion in open interest concentrated around the $100,000 strike price. This event, the largest in crypto history, will test whether Bitcoin can break through its psychological ceiling or collapse under the weight of institutional hedging. For investors, the stakes are clear: this expiry is not just a technical event-it's a battlefield where risk and opportunity collide.

Institutional Positioning: A $100,000 Showdown

The December 26 expiry is dominated by institutional positioning, with Deribit holding $46.24 billion in OI and a staggering $1.74 billion in call condor strategies targeting the $100,000–$118,000 range. This concentration creates a "hedging corridor" between $86,000 and $110,000, where market makers will aggressively delta-hedge as Bitcoin approaches these levels. The result? A self-fulfilling prophecy: prices are likely to oscillate violently around $100,000, with gamma exposure peaking in this range.

Institutional demand for downside protection is also evident. Over 13,800 put options at the $85,000 strike signal a 50% probability of Bitcoin falling below $90,000 by year-end. Meanwhile, the put/call ratio of 1.10 in the December 12 expiry (a smaller $3.7 billion event) already hinted at bearish sentiment. For investors, this duality presents a dilemma: is $100,000 a floor for bullish accumulation or a ceiling for bearish capitulation?

Max Pain Theory: The $100,000 Trap

Max Pain theory, which posits that prices gravitate toward levels where the most options expire worthless, is in full force. For year-end expiries, the max pain level is firmly at $100,000. Historical precedents support this: in October 2024, Bitcoin's price dropped from $67,000 to $64,000 (its max pain level) ahead of a $4.3 billion expiry. Similarly, the December 2024 expiry saw prices cluster near $100,000, the same level now dominating 2025's expiry.

However, max pain is not destiny. In June 2025, a $17 billion expiry failed to push Bitcoin to its max pain level of $110,000 as macroeconomic uncertainty (e.g., Fed policy shifts) overrode derivatives-driven pressures. Investors must ask: Will December 2025's expiry be another max pain victory, or will broader forces-like ETF inflows or macroeconomic data-dictate Bitcoin's fate?

Liquidity Conditions: A Fragile Foundation

Bitcoin's liquidity profile ahead of expiry is precarious. Order book depth has thinned, with market-makers "depleted" after months of volatility. Funding rates in perpetual swaps have normalized, but Bitcoin's role as collateral on lending platforms means further price declines could trigger cascading liquidations.

This fragility amplifies the expiry's impact. A $23.8 billion expiry represents ~1.5% of Bitcoin's market cap-a notional value large enough to distort spot prices if hedging flows are uncoordinated. Thin liquidity increases the risk of "flash crashes" or sudden spikes, particularly if the $100,000 level breaks.

Risk vs. Opportunity: Strategic Entry Points

For investors, the December 26 expiry is both a risk and an opportunity. Risk lies in the potential for sharp volatility: if Bitcoin fails to hold $100,000, the concentrated put options at $85,000 could accelerate a sell-off. Conversely, a breakout above $100,000-triggered by bullish ETF flows or macroeconomic catalysts-could see rapid re-pricing as call options are exercised.

Opportunity exists for those who can navigate this volatility. A $100,000 support test could create a buying opportunity for long-term holders, while short-term traders might profit from straddles or iron condors around the expiry date. Hedging via put options or inverse ETFs is also prudent, given the 50% probability of a sub-$90,000 close.

Conclusion: Prepare for the Showdown

Bitcoin's December 2025 expiry is a defining event for year-end volatility. Institutional positioning, max pain dynamics, and fragile liquidity create a perfect storm for price swings. For investors, the key is preparation: hedge against downside risk, consider strategic entries near $100,000, and brace for a volatile finish to the year. As the $23.8 billion expiry looms, one truth is certain-December 2025 will be remembered as the month Bitcoin's options market rewrote the rules of crypto volatility.