Bitcoin's Open Interest Reset: A New Buying Opportunity Amid Derivatives Cooling

The Bitcoin market in late 2025 is undergoing a pivotal structural shift. Derivatives markets, once a engine of speculative fervor, are cooling as open interest contracts to a six-month low, while spot-buying activity and on-chain metrics suggest a potential inflection point. This reset-driven by forced deleveraging, macroeconomic recalibration, and a re-emergence of Bitcoin's role as a store of value-presents a compelling case for strategic entry.

Derivatives Cooling: A Catalyst for Stability

Bitcoin's derivatives market has entered a deleveraging phase, with open interest collapsing by 32% in USD terms since October 9, 2025, and hitting levels last seen in April 2025. This decline, while alarming in the short term, signals a reduction in forced liquidations and a healthier market foundation. For instance, the $2 billion in liquidations triggered by a price drop below $85,000 in late November 2025-coupled with the Fear & Greed Index hitting an extreme fear level of 11-reflects a market purging speculative excess.

The cooling is not uniform. While futures open interest has fallen to $30.6 billion, options open interest has surged to an all-time high of $50.27 billion according to MEXC data, indicating strategic hedging and positioning for volatility. This divergence underscores a shift from leveraged speculation to more disciplined risk management.

Spot-Buying Strength: A Quiet Accumulation Phase

Amid the derivatives reset, spot markets are showing signs of resilience. On-chain metrics reveal a stabilization in active addresses (693,035) and a 17.1% increase in entity-adjusted transfer volume to $8.9 billion, suggesting long-term holders are not entirely abandoning the asset. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's dominance in the crypto market has risen to over 85% of open interest on Deribit, as traders rotate capital into the most liquid and stable asset during drawdowns.

The launch of Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 has fundamentally altered the valuation framework, with macroeconomic factors-such as Fed policy and global liquidity-now playing a central role. This shift has created a decoupling from altcoin volatility, allowing Bitcoin to act as a safe haven during periods of uncertainty. For example, as altcoin liquidity thins and leverage wanes, Bitcoin's role as a "digital gold" is being reinforced.

Trend Sustainability: Technical and On-Chain Signals

The sustainability of Bitcoin's current trend hinges on two critical factors: technical retesting of key levels and on-chain health. The 50-week moving average, a long-term support line, has been breached, and a weekly close above $100,000 would be necessary to rekindle bullish momentum. However, the decline in open interest and the formation of a "death cross" (50-day MA below 200-day MA) suggest the market is in a consolidation phase rather than a terminal bearish scenario.

On-chain data further supports this view. While eight of ten key indicators flash red, metrics like Realized Profit to Loss have stabilized, and perpetual funding rates have turned more favorable for long positions. This indicates that while short-term pain persists, the foundation for a sustainable bottom is forming. Analysts at MEXC note that deleveraging phases often precede durable accumulation, particularly when macroeconomic conditions improve.

Macro Outlook: The Path to $110,000–$135,000 by 2026

Bitcoin's trajectory in 2026 will depend heavily on the Federal Reserve's policy path. A dovish shift or delayed hawkish stance could inject liquidity into risk assets, while a sustained bearish scenario would require a break below $75,000. Current projections from VanEck and 21Shares suggest a mid-to-long-term range of $110,000–$135,000 by 2026, contingent on Fed rate cuts and continued institutional adoption.

Conclusion: A Buying Opportunity in the Making

Bitcoin's open interest reset is not a bearish verdict but a structural correction. The cooling derivatives market reduces the risk of cascading liquidations, while spot-buying strength and Bitcoin's rising dominance position it as a resilient asset. For investors, this environment offers a unique opportunity to accumulate at discounted levels, provided they remain disciplined and monitor key technical and macroeconomic triggers.

As the market navigates this transition, the focus should shift from short-term volatility to the long-term narrative of Bitcoin as a macro-driven asset. The next leg higher may not come from a sharp rally but from a methodical, on-chain-driven bottoming process.