Bitcoin 'OG Whales' Sell $286M, But Odds of $100K BTC Remain High

Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded four consecutive days of net outflows in early 2026, totaling $681 million as of January 9. The decline in inflows coincided with fading expectations for rate cuts and rising geopolitical risks, pushing investors into risk-off positions. Bitcoin ETFs initially gained $471.1 million on January 2 and another $697.2 million on January 5 before reversing course.

Similar patterns were observed in Ethereum ETFs, with spot Ether ETFs recording $68.6 million in net outflows over the same period. Investors appear to be reassessing risk exposure as macroeconomic uncertainty persists. Analysts suggest that positioning shifts reflect cautious sentiment until more clarity on monetary policy emerges.

Analysts highlight macroeconomic uncertainty as the main driver of risk-off behavior. Vincent Liu from Kronos Research noted that shifting rate expectations and rising global risks are influencing positioning. Investors are now closely watching upcoming U.S. CPI data and Federal Reserve guidance for signals on potential easing cycles. Until clearer macroeconomic signals emerge, positioning is expected to remain cautious.

Why Did Bitcoin ETFs See Four Consecutive Days of Outflows?

Bitcoin ETFs are experiencing outflows as investors adjust to shifting macroeconomic conditions. On January 9, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net outflow of $250 million. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) recorded the largest single outflow of $252 million, while Fidelity’s FBTC saw a modest inflow of $7.9 million.

The divergence in fund performance suggests investors are differentiating between providers. Factors such as expense ratios, liquidity, and brand trust appear to influence fund selection. Bitwise’s ETF also recorded a smaller outflow of $5.9 million, indicating varied investor preferences.

How Might Trump’s Housing Policy Affect Bitcoin?

Recent Trump-backed housing policy measures could indirectly support Bitcoin. The administration announced plans to buy up to $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities to ease housing market conditions. Analysts suggest improved liquidity in the housing sector could eventually benefit risk assets, including Bitcoin.

The policy also includes restrictions on corporate home buying, targeting firms like Blackstone. These measures aim to stimulate housing activity, potentially unlocking broader capital flows. Analysts like Lark Davis see potential for a gradual "unfreezing" of the market, which could benefit Bitcoin in the long run.

What Are Analysts Watching for BTC’s Long-Term Potential?

Despite recent outflows, the odds of Bitcoin reaching $100K remain high among certain investors. Some analysts remain optimistic, noting that Bitcoin’s price is holding near key technical levels. The current price action around the 20-day exponential moving average is being closely monitored for signs of momentum.

Analysts also highlight the potential for a 30% price move if Bitcoin successfully bounces off the 20-day EMA. A successful retest could push the price toward the 200-day moving average, providing a clearer direction for the market.

The broader market environment, including the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision on Trump-era tariffs and the Federal Reserve’s leadership changes, is also a key area of focus. These developments could introduce short-term volatility while long-term positioning remains uncertain.