Bitcoin's NVT Golden Cross Surpasses 2.2 Threshold Indicating Short-Term Reversal Risk

Bitcoin's NVT Golden Cross indicator has surpassed the 2.2 threshold, indicating a potential short-term reversal risk for investors. This alert, triggered on June 17, 2025, suggests that Bitcoin’s market cap is growing faster than its transaction volume, a scenario historically linked to price corrections. The current Bitcoin price stands at $105,500, according to CryptoQuant data.

The NVT (Network Value to Transactions) metric compares market capitalization with on-chain volume to assess overvaluation. The blue line on the chart, which tracks this ratio, has surged past key danger zones historically linked with price pullbacks. Bitcoin’s current value appears disconnected from the blockchain’s transaction strength based on this metric. Such divergence often marks local market tops, as seen in prior occasions where the blue line spiked above 2.2, followed by price corrections shortly after.

Historically, traders have viewed this signal as an opportunity to short Bitcoin in anticipation of a reversion toward the mean. Although short-term in nature, these alerts have influenced intraday and swing trade strategies in crypto markets. The NVT Golden Cross pattern has consistently aligned with turning points over the last 18 months. Since early 2024, several spikes above the 2.2 mark were followed by rapid pullbacks. This pattern repeated in January, March, and October 2024, with every spike into the red zone coinciding with short alerts.

As the black line shows Bitcoin’s price climbing, the rising blue NVT line warns of price overheating. Traders monitoring this technical relationship may now expect heightened volatility and caution in the near term. With Bitcoin having broken above $105,000 recently, the timing of this alert could influence market sentiment. Caution could prevail among traders looking for prices to revisit key support zones in the $90K–$100K range if the metric remains elevated.

The key question remains—will Bitcoin’s price action respond to the NVT divergence and correct downward, or will demand increase? The NVT alert comes as Bitcoin nears its all-time high, which heightens interest in such reversal signals. Technical traders may interpret the overextended NVT as a natural setup for mean reversion. The chart displays a consistent trend: sharp rises in the NVT line frequently precede declines in Bitcoin price. This may embolden bears who anticipate a drop if historical patterns hold. CryptoQuant’s indicator, designed for short-term decision-making, highlights overvaluation periods to assist investors. It does not guarantee price action but serves as a leading risk signal.