Bitcoin News Today: Whales and the Fed Could Decide Bitcoin's Fate Before 2025

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee has expressed a bullish outlook on Bitcoin, forecasting that the cryptocurrency could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025 if the U.S. Federal Reserve initiates a rate-cutting cycle starting as early as September 17 [1]. This assessment is based on the asset’s strong sensitivity to monetary policy, which Lee notes has historically influenced Bitcoin’s performance. He emphasized that the fourth quarter typically sees a surge in crypto markets, and any delay in expected rate cuts has been the primary factor constraining Bitcoin’s upward momentum so far this year.

Recent economic data, including the weak August jobs report, has increased the likelihood of Fed rate cuts, with the probability of a 50-basis-point reduction at the September meeting climbing to 12%. Despite these expectations, Bitcoin’s price has struggled to capitalize, remaining below $112,000. Analysts have pointed to a bearish technical setup, including a failed breakout from a double top formation and a breakdown below the Ichimoku cloud, as signs of potential further declines [2].

The market structure for Bitcoin is being closely watched, with key support and resistance levels identified by analysts. The $110,000 level is considered a critical support point, and the resistance levels are situated at $113,400, $115,400, and $117,100. The ability of Bitcoin to break through these levels will determine whether the asset sees renewed bullish momentum or faces continued downward pressure [3].

Institutional activity has also been a factor in Bitcoin’s recent performance. Whale selling, particularly in the last 30 days, has raised concerns among analysts about potential ongoing downward pressure. Whale balances have fallen by over 100,000 BTC, signaling heightened risk aversion among large investors. Additionally, the reduction in purchases by major treasury companies, including Michael Saylor’s Strategy, has further contributed to a cautious outlook [4].

Looking ahead, the upcoming August CPI data release is expected to provide further clarity on the inflation landscape, which will influence the Fed’s rate-cutting decisions. Analysts at ING have noted that while the current economic environment differs from 2024, with weaker labor markets and higher inflation, fiscal concerns and monetary policy decisions will remain central to Bitcoin’s trajectory [5].

Source:

[1] Fundstrat's Tom Lee reckons bitcoin can easily get to $200,000 by year end (https://www.marketwatch.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-500-and-nasdaq-set-for-mild-recovery/card/fundstrat-s-tom-lee-reckons-bitcoin-can-easily-get-to-200-000-by-year-end--vG0s2XEy4mdDdzND1QOQ)

[2] Bitcoin (BTC) Doesn't Cheer Fed Cut Bets. What Next? (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/09/06/bitcoin-doesn-t-cheer-fed-cut-bets-what-next)

[3] Bitcoin Holds Near $110K as Fed Rate Cut Looms (https://bitbo.io/news/bitcoin-fed-rate-cut/)

[4] Here's 5 Things Bitcoin Traders Are Talking About This Week (https://cointelegraph.com/news/btc-dip-predictions-fall-below-90k-5-things-to-know-in-bitcoin-this-week)

[5] SPX, DXY, BTC, ETH, XRP, BNB, SOL, DOGE, ADA, HYPE (https://cointelegraph.com/news/price-predictions-9-8-spx-dxy-btc-eth-xrp-bnb-sol-doge-ada-hype)