Bitcoin News Today: Whale Shorting and Trade Tensions Test Bitcoin's $113k Support Line
Bitcoin whale activity has intensified as major short positions and key support levels come into focus, according to recent on-chain analytics and market reports. A prominent whale, identified by multiple sources, has opened a 3,500 BTCBTC-- short position with a liquidation price of approximately $120,000, signaling bearish expectations despite Bitcoin's recent rebound to around $114,000 [1]. The position, which adds to a previous short opened ahead of a $20 billion liquidation event, reflects heightened speculative pressure amid geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainty [1].
Analysts highlight the critical role of short-term holder (STH) cost basis in shaping Bitcoin's near-term trajectory. On-chain data from Glassnode shows STHs are holding at an average cost of $113,861, forming a key support line as prices fluctuate around this level [1]. Meanwhile, technical indicators such as the 30-day, 90-day, and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) remain pivotal. Price action currently sits below the 30- and 90-day SMAs, which have converged into a dynamic resistance zone, while the 200-day SMA at $113K continues to anchor the long-term uptrend [1].
The whale's bearish stance aligns with broader market volatility triggered by U.S.-China trade dynamics. A separate "OG" whale, holding 86,000 BTC since the Satoshi era, executed a $1.1 billion short on BitcoinBTC-- and EthereumETH-- just before President Trump's 100% tariff announcement, netting an estimated $27 million in profits as the market plummeted [3]. This timing has fueled speculation about insider knowledge, with critics noting the whale's precise exits at market bottoms and prior strategic sales, including a $4.43 billion conversion of BTC to ETH in August [3].
Geopolitical risks remain a dominant factor. Trump's tariff threats sent Bitcoin tumbling below $119,000 in late October, mirroring historical patterns where trade tensions correlate with crypto price declines. For instance, in April 2025, a 90-day tariff pause between the U.S. and China drove Bitcoin to a record $105,338, underscoring the asset's sensitivity to global trade stability [11]. Morgan Stanley analysts have downplayed fears of a strategic decoupling between the U.S. and China, but market participants remain cautious as tariff negotiations continue [1].
Institutional sentiment, however, remains mixed. While the OG whale's aggressive shorting contrasts with bullish ETF inflows and a 5% annualized perpetual funding rate for Bitcoin, the market's structural strength is evident. The 200-day SMA remains intact above current prices, and STH cost basis suggests a potential floor for further declines [1]. However, a breakdown below the $110K support zone could trigger a deeper correction, according to technical analyses from platforms like Mudrex and Crypto Rover [7][8].
The short-term outlook hinges on whether Bitcoin can reclaim key resistance levels. A sustained move above $123K, the current all-time high, would signal a continuation of the bull market, while a prolonged dip below $110K could open the door to $108K and $100K [7]. Analysts urge traders to monitor the interplay between geopolitical developments, on-chain metrics, and institutional positioning as the market navigates this critical juncture.
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