Bitcoin News Today: Whale Sales and Wedge Patterns Set Stage for ADA's Critical Crossroads

Cardano (ADA) is at a critical juncture as market participants assess whether bulls can push the price above $0.94 and continue the upward trajectory. Technical indicators, analyst insights, and whale movements are all under scrutiny to determine whether ADA will sustain its momentum or face a correction. Recent developments suggest a mix of bullish and cautious signals, with the risk score methodology, falling wedge patterns, and whale activity all playing roles in shaping the narrative.

A key metric influencing ADA's potential breakout is the risk score framework, developed by analyst Dan Gambardello. Currently, ADA is at a risk score of 36, which Gambardello classifies as a “moderate buy.” This places the asset in a pre-bull market phase, though the risk level can escalate rapidly. In previous cycles, Cardano's risk score has jumped from the 30s to over 75 in just weeks, signaling major turning points in the market. Gambardello emphasizes that once the risk score reaches 75, it becomes a critical exit point for investors. This level historically marks the beginning of volatile periods or the peak of bullish runs, depending on the market context.

On the technical side, Cardano is forming a falling wedge pattern around $0.825, as highlighted by multiple analysts. This pattern is a well-known bullish reversal formation and is often followed by a sharp breakout to the upside. If ADA sustains above $0.825 and confirms the breakout, it could push toward $0.95–$1.00, representing a potential 15-20% gain from current levels. However, failure to hold above $0.825 could result in a retest of $0.80 or even $0.76–0.76 support. Volume during the breakout attempt will be a crucial variable—significant buying pressure is needed to validate the pattern and drive ADA higher.

Javon Marks, another prominent crypto chartist, has drawn parallels between ADA’s current wedge pattern and past cycles. He notes that ADA has historically broken out of falling wedges to launch into sharp rallies, with the 2024 breakout leading to a rise to $1.32. Marks projects a similar trajectory this time, suggesting that ADA could rise by approximately 40% to 57% to reach $1.17 to $1.31, with $1.20 as an average target. Looking further out, he sees potential for a long-term move toward $2.91, a level that would represent a 250% increase from current prices. This scenario is contingent on ADA maintaining its bullish structure and successfully retesting the breakout zone without slipping back into bearish territory.

Whale activity, however, introduces an element of caution. In recent days, nearly 50 million ADA tokens were sold by whale accounts over a 48-hour period, as reported by analyst Ali Martinez. While this does not necessarily signal a bearish trend, it does highlight the potential for short-term selling pressure. Such large-scale distributions can create volatility, particularly in the absence of strong institutional or retail demand. Nevertheless, if the broader bullish structure remains intact and demand is steady, these sell-offs are likely to be absorbed, allowing ADA to continue its upward momentum.

Fundamentally, Cardano is also experiencing key developments that could support its price action. The upcoming Leios upgrade, Hydra scaling integrations, and the Midnight privacy layer are all seen as major infrastructure improvements that could attract more institutional and retail interest. Additionally, the potential approval of a Cardano ETF is being watched closely, as such a product could catalyze further price appreciation. Analysts suggest that these developments, combined with favorable technical conditions, could reinforce ADA’s position as a leading altcoin in the current market cycle.

In summary, Cardano is in a position where its near-term trajectory will depend on a combination of technical validation, institutional demand, and whale behavior. If ADA can successfully break above $0.825 and hold the key resistance levels, it may push toward $0.95–$1.00 and beyond. Conversely, a failure to maintain these levels could lead to a temporary pullback, testing $0.80 before potentially resuming a bullish trend. Investors are advised to closely monitor the risk score, volume dynamics, and whale activity as the market moves toward a critical decision point.

Source:

[1] Cardano Bull Reveals When He'll Start Selling His ADA Bag (https://thecryptobasic.com/2025/09/05/cardano-bull-reveals-when-hell-start-selling-his-ada-bag/)

[2] ADA Eyes $2 Breakout as Wyckoff Cycle and Trendline ... (https://bravenewcoin.com/insights/cardano-price-prediction-ada-eyes-2-breakout-as-wyckoff-cycle-and-trendline-pressure-align)

[3] Cardano Falling Wedge Breakout Eyes Run to $1.2 Before ... (https://thecryptobasic.com/2025/09/04/cardano-falling-wedge-breakout-eyes-run-to-1-2-before-uptick-to-2-91/)

[4] ADA Price Prediction: Eyes Breakout as Falling Wedge ... (https://thetradable.com/crypto/ada-price-prediction-eyes-breakout-as-falling-wedge-signals-bullish-reversal-ig--a)

[5] Expert Warns of a Dip in Cardano (ADA) Price (https://captainaltcoin.com/expert-warns-of-a-dip-in-cardano-ada-price-heres-what-could-happen/)

[6] Price predictions 9/5: BTC, ETH, XRP, BNB, SOL, DOGE ... (https://www.coinglass.com/ru/news/689628)

[7] Best Crypto to Buy in September 2025 — Bitcoin, Cardano ... (https://timestabloid.com/best-crypto-to-buy-in-september-2025-bitcoin-cardano-and-solana/)

[8] Ethereum Supply Tightens With Major Exchange Outflows, ... (https://www.fxleaders.com/news/2025/09/03/ethereum-supply-tightens-with-major-exchange-outflows-etf-demand-rising/)