Bitcoin News Today: TradFi's Liquidity Shift Leaves Bitcoin Unmoved by Trade Deal

The announcement of a historic trade agreement between the United States and China on November 1, 2025, failed to move Bitcoin's price, which remained stagnant despite the deal's potential to reshape global economic dynamics. The agreement, which includes commitments from China to curb fentanyl precursor exports, ease rare earth mineral controls, and resume large-scale soybean purchases from U.S. farmers, was met with muted reactions in cryptocurrency markets. Analysts suggest the lack of volatility reflects a shift in investor priorities, with traditional finance (TradFi) players increasingly dominating Bitcoin's liquidity landscape.

The U.S.-China trade deal, detailed in a White House fact sheet, aims to rebalance economic tensions by suspending retaliatory tariffs and addressing supply chain issues. President Donald Trump highlighted the agreement as a "massive victory" for American workers and businesses, while Chinese state media confirmed cooperation on fentanyl control and agricultural imports. However, these developments did not translate into immediate price action for Bitcoin, which traded in a narrow range around $110,000 in late October.

Crypto analysts attribute Bitcoin's flat performance to a structural shift in market dynamics. "We're watching a changing of the guard-from the OGs who rode the early risky waves into a new pool of TradFi buyers who prefer calmer waters," said one expert cited in a recent report. This transition suggests long-term holders are offloading positions to institutional investors seeking stable, low-volatility assets. The trend aligns with broader market rotations, as traditional financial institutions increasingly allocate capital to Bitcoin while retail speculative activity wanes.

The trade deal's economic implications may indirectly influence Bitcoin through stablecoin and TradFi integration. Western Union's upcoming launch of a USD-pegged stablecoin (USDPT) on the Solana blockchain in 2026 could enhance cross-border payment efficiency and bridge traditional financial systems with decentralized networks. This development, coupled with rising stablecoin supplies-exceeding $250 billion globally-may bolster liquidity for Bitcoin, though immediate price impacts remain limited.

Meanwhile, the trade agreement's focus on agricultural and industrial supply chains could affect demand for cryptocurrencies in sectors like logistics and energy. U.S. soybean farmers, for instance, stand to benefit from China's commitment to purchase 25 million metric tons annually, potentially increasing corporate cash flows and reducing economic uncertainty. However, such macroeconomic factors appear to have a delayed or indirect influence on Bitcoin's price, which remains more sensitive to monetary policy and institutional adoption trends.

Critically, the trade deal's provisional nature-many terms are set to expire by late 2026-adds to market uncertainty. While the agreement provides short-term relief from trade tensions, its durability remains untested, deterring aggressive risk-taking in both equity and crypto markets. This hesitance is compounded by broader geopolitical risks, including Russia's non‑GMO soybean exports to China and Malaysia's efforts to clarify its U.S. trade pact, which highlight the complexity of global supply chain realignments.

In the near term, Bitcoin's trajectory will likely depend on stablecoin flows and institutional activity. The Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR), which measures Bitcoin's market cap against stablecoin liquidity, has entered historically bearish territory, suggesting potential for a price bottom. However, confirmation will require sustained inflows and further integration of TradFi infrastructure, such as AX's new perpetual futures exchange, which aims to blend traditional and digital asset markets.