Bitcoin News Today: Standard Chartered Ups Bitcoin Target to $135K on ETF Surge and Supply Shifts

Bitcoin surged past $123,000 in October 2025, driven by robust institutional demand and surging exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows, as Standard Chartered Plc escalated its price forecast to $135,000 "as soon as next week" Standard Chartered says Bitcoin BTC could hit $135K^[1]. The bank's analysis, led by Global Head of Digital Assets Research Geoff Kendrick, attributes the bullish momentum to a confluence of factors: post-halving supply constraints, unprecedented ETF adoption, and Bitcoin's evolving role as a macroeconomic hedge against U.S. government risk Standard Chartered Sees Bitcoin Reaching New Record High In A Week^[2]. With net Bitcoin ETF inflows reaching $58 billion since their launch-including $23 billion in 2025-Kendrick projects "at least another $20 billion by year-end," which he argues could justify a $200,000 year-end target Bitcoin Could Reach $135,000 Soon: Standard Chartered^[3].

The current rally defies historical patterns, where Bitcoin typically weakens 18 months post-halving. The April 2024 halving, instead of triggering a downturn, has been offset by structural changes in demand. U.S. spot ETFs now account for the majority of incremental buying during strong days, while miner sales have eased, tightening supply Standard Chartered says Bitcoin BTC could hit $135K^[1]. This dynamic has amplified price sensitivity to macroeconomic developments, including the U.S. Treasury term premium. Kendrick notes that Bitcoin's recent correlation with government risk-unlike during the 2018–2019 shutdown-reflects its growing integration into institutional portfolios as a hedge against policy uncertainty Standard Chartered Sees Bitcoin Reaching New Record High In A Week^[2].

Technical indicators reinforce the bullish case. Bitcoin's price action shows a "higher low" pattern, with the RSI forming bullish divergences and the 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages providing support . The market has also seen a surge in derivatives activity, with open interest reaching record levels on regulated exchanges. However, low trading volume and a potential CME futures gap near $110,000 introduce caution, as traders monitor whether the current momentum can sustain a break above $120,000 .

While the outlook is positive, risks persist. A hotter-than-expected inflation report could push long-end yields higher, siphoning liquidity from high-beta assets like Bitcoin. Similarly, escalations in U.S. tariff policies or government shutdown scenarios could flip the narrative from a policy hedge to a growth scare, dragging Bitcoin lower alongside cyclicals Standard Chartered says Bitcoin BTC could hit $135K^[1]. Additionally, short-term profit-taking from early ETF buyers could stall the advance, particularly if intraday liquidity thins.

The market's next test will hinge on the interplay of ETF inflows, macroeconomic developments, and institutional positioning. If the current trajectory holds, Bitcoin's drivers-halving supply effects, ETF demand, and macro risk premia-will continue to coexist, potentially validating Standard Chartered's aggressive timeline. However, as Kendrick acknowledges, the market remains vulnerable to shocks that could reverse these dynamics Standard Chartered says Bitcoin BTC could hit $135K^[1]. For now, the $120,000 level acts as a critical psychological and technical threshold, with the path to $135,000 dependent on sustained institutional buying and a benign macroeconomic backdrop.