Bitcoin News Today: Shutdown Stalls Bitcoin ETFs, Altcoins Seize Market Share

Bitcoin's price retreated from an all-time high of $119,400 amid intensifying anxiety over the U.S. government shutdown, which has delayed critical approvals for spot crypto ETFs and heightened macroeconomic uncertainty. The cryptocurrency's market cap briefly surged above $4 trillion in early October, driven by a 4% single-day gain, but subsequent volatility has left traders wary of a prolonged altcoin rally. Analysts attribute the pullback to institutional caution and the risk of regulatory gridlock, with Nate Geraci, a leading ETF analyst, warning that a prolonged shutdown could push approvals for crypto ETFs into late 2025 or beyond. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has also signaled potential disruptions to its services if the shutdown persists$4 Trillion Market Cap Reclaimed, Q4 Altcoin Rally Next?^[1].

Bitcoin's dominance over the crypto market has dipped below 60% for the first time since 2024, a key threshold historically linked to altcoin strength. Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) have gained market share, rising to 12.9% and 7.2% respectively, as investors rotate capital into smaller cryptocurrenciesBitcoin Dominance Drops Below 60% as ETH Gains …^[3]. Technical indicators reinforce this shift: the Altcoin Season Index from CoinGlass climbed to 73, and Binance's CoinMarketCap index hit 64, both suggesting heightened altcoin activity. However, Bitcoin's dominance remains a constraint, with analysts like Dan Gambardello noting that a sustained break below 59% could trigger a broader altcoin surgeBitcoin Dominance Drops Below 60% as ETH Gains …^[3].

The U.S. government shutdown has exacerbated macroeconomic risks, with the dollar index (DXY) showing bullish divergences and gold hitting record highs as investors seek safe-haven assets. In the crypto sphere, Bitcoin's price has approached the $120,000 level, supported by a bullish MACD crossover and a consolidation pattern near the Power Law Corridor. Yet, the RSI's overbought level (77.91) and rising funding rates for BTC-USD derivatives suggest near-term resistance at $125,000. Whales have also accumulated over 30,000 BTC in two days, signaling confidence in Bitcoin's long-term trajectory despite short-term volatility.

Market dynamics indicate a potential shift toward altcoins if Bitcoin consolidates. The TOTAL3 index, which tracks altcoins excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, has formed a "Cup & Handle" pattern, projecting a possible surge to $4.37 trillion-a 290% gain from current levels. Analysts like Trader Tardigrade highlight that large-cap altcoins such as Solana, Dogecoin, and XRP could see 3–5x rallies, while mid- and small-cap projects may benefit from increased liquidityAltcoin Season 2025 Will Be Bigger Than 2021 - Here’s …^[2]. However, Bitcoin dominance's resilience-peaking at 65.1% in June-suggests that a definitive altcoin season may require further weakness in BTC's share of the marketBitcoin Dominance Drops Below 60% as ETH Gains …^[3].

The interplay between Bitcoin's price action and altcoin momentum remains a focal point for traders. While Bitcoin's technical setup points to a potential breakout, the broader market's response to macroeconomic headwinds and regulatory delays will determine the timing of an altcoin rally. For now, the tug-of-war between Bitcoin's dominance and altcoin demand underscores a market at a crossroads, with investors closely monitoring the U.S. government's fiscal resolution and institutional capital flowsBTC Price Rally Nearing All-Time High: Will It Break …^[5].