Bitcoin News Today: Retail Panic, Whale Patience: Bitcoin's Downturn Divides Investor Camps

Bitcoin Faces Extended Downturn as Analysts Debate Bottom and Recovery Timelines

The cryptocurrency market continues to grapple with heightened volatility, with Bitcoin (BTC) leading the downturn as it tests critical support levels and institutional players reassess risk exposure. The total crypto market cap has fallen to approximately $3.07 trillion, a 18% decline from its October peak, according to TradingView data. Bitcoin, which dropped below $90,000 this week, has drawn mixed signals from analysts, with some predicting a near-term rebound while others warn of deeper losses ahead.

On-chain data reveals a stark divergence between retail and institutional behavior. Retail traders have been aggressively liquidating positions, with over $651 million in leveraged trades closed this week, per CoinPedia analysis. Meanwhile, whale investors-holders of large BTC balances-have maintained a tight grip on their assets. CryptoQuant data shows that long-term holders and miners have not increased selling pressure despite the recent selloff. Santiment analysts note this retail capitulation historically precedes market rebounds, citing a 2019 pattern where Bitcoin bottomed 13 days after a U.S. government shutdown ended before surging 400% within five months.

Technical indicators add to the uncertainty. According to CoinPedia, Bitcoin's price has retested a key support level near $90,000 and triggered a "rubber-spring rebound" signal. However, Glassnode's MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) analysis suggests further downside risks. The asset has fallen below its "fair value" Mean band, with the next critical target at $75,700, a level last seen in April 2025. A breakdown below this threshold could accelerate losses toward $52,800, mirroring prior bear markets in 2018 and 2022.

Institutional developments complicate the outlook. GSR recently expanded its institutional platform to enhance transparency and treasury workflows, signaling a broader push to align crypto markets with traditional finance standards. Meanwhile, corporate crypto treasuries face a reckoning as unrealized losses mount. BitMine Immersion Technologies, the largest corporate Ether (ETH) holder, reported a $3.7 billion paper loss on its holdings, exacerbating concerns about liquidity and investment sustainability.

Analysts remain divided on Bitcoin's trajectory. While Bitwise's Matt Hougan and BitMine's Tom Lee forecast a 40% rally by year-end, others caution against optimism. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC has entered oversold territory, but its failure to stabilize above the 50-day EMA ($2.16 for XRP) suggests lingering bearish momentum. Ripple's price action, though distinct from Bitcoin, highlights broader market fragility, with XRP targeting April lows if the current downtrend persists.

The coming months will likely hinge on macroeconomic catalysts, including the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing policies and potential ETF inflows. Wellington-Altus' James Thorne emphasized historical parallels to 2019, when Bitcoin's post-shutdown rebound was fueled by liquidity injections. However, with crypto treasuries facing regulatory scrutiny-MSCI's proposed exclusion of firms with over 50% crypto assets-market psychology remains fragile.