Bitcoin News Today: MSCI's Crypto Index Exclusion Plan Threatens $Billions in Passive Sell-Offs, Deepening Bitcoin's Downturn

Bitcoin's monthly MACD indicator has crossed into bearish territory, reigniting concerns of a potential 60% price correction, according to analysis from on-chain observer @ali_charts. The signal, a key technical indicator for long-term trends, mirrors three prior instances since 2020 where Bitcoin's price plummeted by an average of 60% following similar bearish crossovers. If historical patterns hold, the cryptocurrency could drop to as low as $40,000 in the current cycle.

The latest downturn has intensified scrutiny of structural risks in the crypto market, including the potential exclusion of digital asset treasury (DAT) companies from major financial indexes. MSCI, a global index provider, is reportedly considering removing firms with over 50% of assets in crypto from its benchmarks, starting in January 2026. This move could trigger automatic sell-offs by funds and asset managers obligated to align with index criteria, potentially exacerbating downward pressure on Bitcoin and DAT stocks like MicroStrategy (MSTR). Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy, has pushed back against the proposal, arguing that DATs are active financial entities rather than passive vehicles, but analysts warn the exclusion could strip billions in passive capital flows.

Market sentiment has soured further amid geopolitical and macroeconomic headwinds. The Trump administration's aggressive trade policies, persistent inflation, and delayed economic data releases have heightened uncertainty, pushing investors toward risk-off positions. Bitcoin's recent 24% three-month decline-while historically moderate compared to prior bear markets-has sparked debates over whether this marks a "correction" or the start of a deeper downturn. Bitcoin is volatile by nature, but its correlation with traditional markets is tightening, noted UC Irvine's Bill Maurer, highlighting how macroeconomic shifts now weigh more heavily on crypto.

Adding to the turmoil, high-profile figures have amplified fears. Bitcoin maximalists like Max Keiser and Robert Kiyosaki have called for boycotts of JP Morgan and urged investors to "buy the dip," while Jim Cramer mocked Cathie Wood's $1 million Bitcoin price target for 2030. Meanwhile, Kiyosaki himself sold his Bitcoin holdings, reinvesting proceeds into cash-generating ventures, signaling caution among even staunch bulls.

Despite the short-term gloom, long-term fundamentals remain intact. Bitcoin's fixed supply and upcoming halving event in 2026 continue to underpin its scarcity narrative, and ETFs still provide accessible on-ramps for institutional and retail investors. However, with outflows from Bitcoin ETFs hitting records in November and DAT inflows plummeting to $505 million-a 92% drop from September-liquidity constraints could prolong the downturn.

Historical context offers a mixed outlook. While Bitcoin has rebounded after every major crash since 2011, the current environment features new risks, including regulatory shifts and the growing influence of stablecoins. This time isn't entirely different, but the stakes are higher, said Duke's Campbell Harvey, noting that six prior 60%+ crashes eventually led to higher peaks.