Bitcoin News Today: MicroStrategy's Crypto Bet: Software Gains Clash with Bitcoin Volatility

MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) reported mixed third-quarter results despite a 26% year-to-date yield on its Bitcoin holdings, reinforcing its aggressive cryptocurrency strategy amid market volatility. The company's shares rose 2.33% in extended trading after posting quarterly earnings of $8.42 per share, below the $10.57 analyst consensus, but revenue of $128.69 million exceeded estimates by $11.67 million, according to a Benzinga report. CEO Phong Le highlighted the firm's Bitcoin position of 640,808 coins, valued at $70.9 billion as of Oct. 26, 2025, and reiterated full-year targets of $20 billion in Bitcoin gains and a 30% yield, the Benzinga report said.

The earnings report underscored MicroStrategy's dual focus on software and crypto. Product licenses and subscription services revenue surged 62.9% year-over-year to $48 million, contributing 41.9% of total revenue, according to Seeking Alpha. However, adjusted earnings fell short of expectations, with Q3 adjusted EPS of $8.42 missing the $11.69 million consensus. The company attributed this to Bitcoin's recent price fluctuations, which currently trade below $125,338, a drop from October's peak, according to TradingView.

MicroStrategy reaffirmed its 2025 guidance, projecting $80 in earnings per share and $34 billion in operating income, contingent on Bitcoin hitting $150,000 by year-end, Seeking Alpha reported. This target remains precarious as Bitcoin's volatility complicates long-term planning. The firm's capital-raising strategy, including preferred equity offerings like STRK and STRF, has raised $20 billion year-to-date, with S&P assigning a B- credit rating to MicroStrategy, the TradingView note added.

Analysts remain divided on the stock's prospects. While the company's Bitcoin treasury and software growth are compelling, its stretched valuation—trading at 1.77 times price-to-book—raises concerns. Zacks Investment Research assigned a "Hold" rating, citing risks from regulatory uncertainty and macroeconomic headwinds. Meanwhile, peers like Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA) and Riot Platforms (RIOT) have outperformed MicroStrategy, with IREN Limited's shares surging 561.8% year-to-date.

The Trump administration's strategic Bitcoin reserve initiative has provided a tailwind for MicroStrategy, but the U.S. government shutdown and broader market jitters add layers of complexity. As of Oct. 26, MicroStrategy's Bitcoin portfolio showed a $12.9 billion unrealized gain, though this could reverse rapidly in a down market, Seeking Alpha noted.