Bitcoin News Today: Macro Forces, Not Whales, Now Drive Bitcoin's 2025 Price Action

A Bitcoin whale recently amassed 3,195 BTC—valued at $356.6 million—in just under three hours, sparking renewed debate about the influence of large holders on market dynamics. However, experts argue that while such movements capture attention, they rarely dictate broader trends. Instead, macroeconomic factors, exchange liquidity, and institutional flows have increasingly dominated Bitcoin's price action in 2025, according to Cointelegraph.

The accumulation aligns with patterns observed in recent cycles, where whales often sell during bullish phases rather than driving them. Historical data shows that large holders frequently offload assets when smaller traders are aggressively buying, effectively tempering rallies rather than fueling them, the article noted. This behavior was evident in early 2025, as prices surged past $120,000 amid strong ETF inflows and broad accumulation. Mega-whales took profits at the margin, with intraday price movements more closely tied to ETF flows and liquidity conditions than individual wallet activity, the piece added.

Spot ETFs have emerged as a critical daily signal since their launch in January 2024. Strong weekly inflows have consistently correlated with new price highs, while negative flows have aligned with downward corrections. A live flow dashboard now allows traders to monitor US ETF trends in real time, highlighting the asset's growing institutional adoption, the report observed.

Exchange liquidity levels have also tightened, with centralized balances plummeting to 2.83 million BTC—a six-year low. Thinner liquidity means routine buy or sell programs now have a more pronounced impact on order books, amplifying price volatility across all participant types, the article explained.

Intraday swings are increasingly driven by positioning and leverage. Recent data shows that 97% of Bitcoin's circulating supply is in profit, with open interest rebuilding after a prior market wipeout. Funding rates and leverage shifts often act as leading indicators, with the path of least resistance shifting rapidly in crowded markets, the analysis suggested.

Macro factors remain the ultimate driver of crypto beta. The US dollar's strength, yield trends, and global risk appetite continue to move in tandem with Bitcoin's daily direction. For example, a well-known "OG" whale recently sold thousands of BTC to purchase nearly $4 billion in Ether, signaling a strategic shift in asset allocation, the article reported.