Bitcoin News Today: Lyn Alden Predicts Bitcoin Could Hit $150,000 as U.S. Fiscal Deficit Grows to 120% of GDP

Lyn Alden, a prominent macroeconomic analyst and founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy, continues to shape discussions around Bitcoin, AI, and the U.S. fiscal deficit. Known for her book Broken Money, which critiques the global monetary system, Alden remains a leading voice in assessing the long-term implications of economic trends and how they intersect with cryptocurrency [1].

Alden’s thesis on the U.S. fiscal deficit remains a central focus. She argues that the current fiscal imbalance is a “slow-motion runaway train,” with the national debt reaching $36.9 trillion—over 120% of GDP—and increasing by approximately $1 trillion every quarter. Political polarization makes meaningful deficit reduction unlikely in the near future, and while measures like tariffs can temporarily slow the pace of deficit growth, they are insufficient to address the scale of the problem. Alden emphasizes that the U.S. economy is highly financialized, with tax receipts closely tied to asset prices, which complicates any austerity measures without triggering broader economic slowdowns [1].

Turning to the crypto market, Alden acknowledges the recent market corrections sparked by weak economic data, such as the downgraded jobs report. While she respects Arthur Hayes’ bearish stance, she remains cautious in her own assessment. She notes that while tighter fiscal policies and treasury cash account refills can pull liquidity out of the system, the broader global liquidity environment remains relatively neutral. She observes that a stabilizing U.S. dollar and a rising Chinese credit impulse provide a mixed but not overly negative outlook [1].

Alden sees Bitcoin’s current cycle as still in progress. She predicts higher highs in the near future, potentially reaching $150,000 or more, depending on market conditions. Unlike some analysts, she avoids making overly bullish or bearish predictions, instead focusing on structural indicators that suggest the cycle is far from its peak. She compares Bitcoin’s trajectory to that of large-cap U.S. tech stocks, noting that while Bitcoin may remain volatile, it could follow a pattern of steady growth punctuated by consolidation phases rather than sharp peaks and collapses [1].

On the topic of Bitcoin treasury companies, Alden is not alarmed by the increasing presence of institutional players in the space. While she acknowledges the centralization concerns, she argues that the current level of ownership and leverage by firms like Strategy and MicroStrategy is not fundamentally different from historical cycles. However, she warns that excessive euphoria and leverage remain key risks, as they often precede downturns in the cycle [1].

Alden also weighs in on the long-term economic implications of AI and inflation. She sees AI as an inevitable force that will disrupt traditional labor markets but ultimately enable new forms of economic activity. Unlike previous technological revolutions, AI’s impact on white-collar jobs is expected to be faster and more widespread. She argues that AI-driven cost reductions in service sectors could help moderate some inflationary pressures, though she cautions that persistent inflation is likely to remain due to ongoing money printing and the scarcity of certain assets like high-quality real estate and precious metals [1].

Alden is also skeptical of the idea that AI will continuously improve at an accelerating rate. She draws parallels with the aviation industry, where rapid innovation in the 20th century gave way to a period of stagnation. Similarly, she expects AI and electronics to eventually hit a plateau, slowing the pace of development and allowing society to better integrate and absorb the technology [1].

Source: [1] Inside the mind of Lyn Alden: Bitcoin, AI, and the unstoppable deficit train (https://cryptoslate.com/inside-the-mind-of-lyn-alden-bitcoin-ai-and-the-unstoppable-deficit-train/)