Bitcoin News Today: Long-Term Holders Prop Up Bitcoin Near $115k Mark

Bitcoin's price has surged to $114,553, nearing the $115,000 resistance level, as spot investors demonstrate resilience amid market volatility. Despite a sharp crash that saw Bitcoin plunge from $122,000 to $102,000, holders have refrained from large-scale sell-offs, with only 6,000 BTC ($688 million) flowing into exchanges in the past three days BeInCrypto^[6]. This limited activity underscores strong conviction among long-term investors, who are maintaining positions rather than liquidating at a loss BeInCrypto^[6].

The recovery has been driven by spot market stability rather than leveraged futures traders, who faced significant liquidations during the crash. Market makers have paused arbitrage activities and are addressing price discrepancies between spot and futures markets, prolonging the bottoming process Coindesk^[1]. Meanwhile, institutional sentiment remains cautiously bearish, with Bitcoin's Long/Short Bias chart showing a sharp increase in net short positions in the days leading to the crash BeInCrypto^[6].

Bitcoin's recent performance has been bolstered by broader macroeconomic factors. The U.S. Federal Reserve's 25-basis-point rate cut and expectations of further easing in 2025 have fueled risk-on sentiment, supporting Bitcoin's recovery above $116,000 FxStreet^[5]. Additionally, Bitcoin spot ETFs have attracted over $660 million in inflows this week, reinforcing institutional demand FxStreet^[5]. However, a single day of ETF outflows totaling $51.3 million in late September has raised concerns about short-term momentum The Coin Republic^[4].

On-chain data highlights divergent investor behavior. Long-term holders have accumulated over 167,000 BTC ($14 billion) in March, signaling confidence in Bitcoin's long-term value despite the recent downturn . Conversely, retail traders have shown bearish positioning, with the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index remaining neutral and smaller wallets accumulating BTC in a retail-driven rally FxStreet^[5].

Technical analysis suggests a cautious outlook. Bitcoin's ability to reclaim $115,000 could push the price toward $117,261 and $120,000, while a failure to hold this level risks a pullback below $112,500 and a retest of $110,000 BeInCrypto^[6]. The RSI on the daily chart stands at 59, indicating sustained bullish momentum, though the MACD remains in a bearish crossover FxStreet^[5].

Market structure analysis reveals a complex interplay between spot and futures markets. The basis (difference between spot and futures prices) has shifted to a negative level, reflecting bearish sentiment, while funding rates have turned negative, indicating short positions dominate Gate.io^[7]. Arbitrage strategies and algorithmic trading have amplified price correlations, with retail and institutional flows shaping divergent market dynamics Gate.io^[7].

Despite the volatility, Bitcoin's market capitalization has rebounded above $4 trillion, supported by easing U.S.-China trade tensions and diplomatic efforts to address rare earth mineral export curbs FxLeaders^[3]. Analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin's potential to reach $200,000 by year-end, though they caution that continued geopolitical risks could disrupt the recovery FxLeaders^[3].